Tourism growth tops forecast

The worldwide tourism industry has
bounced back quicker than analysts expected, according to the World Travel and
Tourism Council.

Speaking at the World Travel Market
conference in London, president of the council Jean-Claude Baumgarten said that
2010 had been good news for everybody, following the release of figures that
indicated the growth of tourism’s gross domestic product of 2 per cent.

This compares favourably with the
council’s January prediction of growth totalling 0.5 per cent. As a result,
2011 forecasts have been revised downward from mooted growth of 3.2 per cent to
2.7 per cent.

However, expenditure is down on the
2008 peak and things are still slow, said Mr. Baumgarten.

“Customers are not paying what they
paid in 2008 and 2009 and it is going to take a couple of years to get that
back,” he advised delegates.

During the next ten years, said the
president, the council forecast the global economy to grow by 4.3 per cent
annually.

“(This implies that) its share of
the global economy will rise to just over 10 per cent. This will help create an
additional 66 million jobs by 2020 – 50 million of which in Asia – acting as a
key driver of poverty reduction,” said Mr, Baumgarten.

The industry however is not growing
at a consistent rate geographically; Asia still leads growth whilst Europe
remains significantly depressed as economic activity remains in the doldrums.
By contrast, Chinese tourists abroad spent 22 per cent more than they did in
2009.

Arrivals increase

According to the United Nations
World Tourism Organisation’s World Tourism Barometer, also discussed at the
conference, worldwide arrivals between January and August 2010 were 642
million. This represents a 7 per cent increase on the same period in 2009 and
is slightly up – by a million arrivals – on 2008 figures.

Taleb Rifai, the secretary-general
of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation, said that the results served
to reinforce a message they had been underscoring since the global crisis broke
at the end of 2008.

“Tourism is one of the most dynamic
economic sectors and a key driver in creating much needed growth and
employment,” he said to reporters.

The organisation’s Highlights 2010
report, meanwhile, noted that international tourism receipts reached US$852
billion in 2009 which was down from $941 billion during 2008. Although this
represented an absolute drop of $89 billion, because of the strong performance
of the US dollar against other world currencies it represented a euro 29
billion drop.

“In real terms, i.e. using local
currencies at constant prices in order to adjust for exchange rate fluctuations
and inflation, international tourism receipts decreased by 5.7 per cent in
2009. This was the first year of decline since 2003, when international tourism
was hit by the Iraq war and the outbreak of SARS, decreasing then by 1.3 per
cent in real terms.

“As in most years, the difference
in the trend in receipts and arrivals was fairly narrow in 2009, showing that
the slowdown in receipts is mostly linked to the dip in arrivals rather than to
reduced expenditure,” read the report.

New markets

The World Travel Market Industry
Report was also released at the event. It said that a third of industry
executives said that emerging markets presented the best opportunity for their
businesses in the next five years. Indeed, 55 per cent of those surveyed said
that over the last year they had experienced positive impacts from those
markets in the last year.

Brazil, Russia, India and China –
the so-called BRIC economies – were flagged as growth markets, as well as
United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, said World Travel Market chairman, Fiona
Jeffery.

“New and emerging markets represent
the future for the travel and tourism industry. Outbound travel is on the
increase, and more and more countries are seeing the potential of tourism.
World Travel Market is proud to be leading the way in bringing the world’s
travel industry together.

“The World Travel Market 2010
Industry Report shows how the industry is switching its focus from the
developed markets of UK, Europe and the US to the emerging economies of Asia,
Latin America and the Middle East. The emerging middle classes in the BRIC
economies with a desire to travel alongside the wealth of the Gulf Cooperative
Countries make these economies the future of the travel and tourism industry,”
said Ms Jeffery.

The World Travel Market brings
together 46.000 professionals, government ministers, media and private sector
businesses to discuss tourism. Held in London, it is in its 31st years.