With seas projected to rise between 20 centimetres and 40 centimetres and temperatures to rise between two degrees and four degrees Celsius in the next 100 years, a crisis may occur if something is not done.
This was the message given by experts from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research based in the UK, at the Chamber of Commerce luncheon on climate change at the Wharf Restaurant on Wednesday.
‘We’re not in a crisis, but if we don’t do something in the next few years it will lead to a crisis,’ Professor Andrew Watkinson, an expert on ecology, climate change and coastal zone management, told the gathering of business people.
Professor Tim O’Riordan, who specialises in research of global-local relations and their implications for the transition to sustainability, urged people to cut down on carbon dioxide omissions and for the country to bring in incentives for those practising sustainable development.
Mr. Watkinson said that climate change is a fact and can been seen in temperature recordings since 1066. However, temperatures are now higher than we have ever known them to be. Sea levels are changing too. Sea levels have been rising since the 1880s and are rising at a rate of one to two millimetres a year.
Another point of change, he said, is the extreme weather events we see happening, such as Hurricane Ivan.
But it is not only climate change that is affecting the Caribbean – other factors are influencing some of the changes. Between 1977 and 2003 there has been, on average, an 80 per cent decline in coral in the Caribbean. This is because of human activities.
‘That decline is greater than anywhere else in the world,’ he said.
‘The state of the coral reefs is not good and they won’t be resilient to climate change in the future,’ he added. The acidity of the sea water is lower than ever, and this also puts corals at risk.
Reefs have functions ranging from providing food and shelter to fish and invertebrates to protecting the shore from erosion. In addition, revenue from tourists attracted to the beauty of coral reefs can be a significant source of income.
Having marine protected areas is one way of helping the recovery of areas where there is more stress, said the professor.
Hurricanes also affect the coral reefs. The decline in coral cover after hurricanes is 17 per cent, he said.
Coral bleaching is something else that is on the rise. This can cause stress or death to the coral.
‘For every 0.1 degree rise in temperature we see a 35 per cent increase in the amount of bleaching. So we’ll see more and more bleaching in the future if temperatures keep rising,’ he said.
Carbon dioxide gas has risen by over 30 per cent from the year 1066 to now, due to human activities. It is carbon dioxide that is raising the temperatures. ‘We know carbon dioxide is driving climate change’, said Mr. Watkinson.
In the next 100 years temperatures are expected to rise between two to four degrees Celsius, he said.
‘In the Caribbean you’re looking at a four to five degree rise, and that has enormous implications,’ he said.
The seas will rise 20 to 40 cm and if the Antarctic ice sheet melts, the seas could rise as high as five metres.
He said a study was done in Bonaire (popular for diving) and Barbados (popular for its beaches) and 80 per cent of the tourists said they would not return to Bonaire if the corals got bleached. The same percentage said they wouldn’t return to Barbados if the beaches disintegrated.
‘This points to the importance of helping coral and beaches to be healthy. It will help tourism and the economy in the long run,’ he said.
Mr. Watkinson said there are many significant challenges to be faced.
‘This is not a negative doomsday, but we need to plan properly for these challenges,’ he said.
Mr. O’Riordan said many communities are making a pledge to cut down on their carbon dioxide usage. The United Kingdom has pledged a 60 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050. He suggested that this is something the Cayman Islands can do.
He said people should be doing their planning based on where the high tide mark will be in 75 years. A coastal hazard assessment needs to be done, he said.
The insurance industry should encourage people to design properties that are hazard proof and to design properties to deal with heat, wind and drainage. Hazard maps for drainage need to be looked at and to safeguard precious resources Cayman should be looking toward a carbon dioxide free future by the year 2025.
However, the international community also needs to eliminate using greenhouse gases.
‘If we keep pumping in these gases we will have long term global warming,’ he warned.
Mr. O’Riordan said that earth, seas and atmosphere will not simply begin to adjust to global warming.
‘It’s in our hands to do something about it. It won’t heal itself,’ he said.
He pointed out that the US business community has moved to a low carbon energy efficient future.
‘The bigger challenge is to get the community at large to do this,’ said Mr. O’Riordan.
Mr. Watkinson said there are many simple things we do that put carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, such as the movement of food (through importation) and flying on aircraft, which omits huge amounts of carbon and nitrous oxide.
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