global economy will slow down, but it is not in imminent danger of slipping
into a double-dip recession, the Centre for Economics and Business Research
(CEBR), a British think tank, has determined.
would be prepared to bet one of my better shirts on there being no global
double dip,” said CEBR chief executive Douglas McWilliams.
“Although their growth will be affected by slower growth in the West, the
emerging economies are too resilient for global growth to go negative again in
the short term.”
the group has downgraded its growth forecast for the world economy.
CEBR now expects the global economy to expand by 3.5 per cent this year and 3.4
per cent in 2011 (down from prior estimates of 3.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent,
Global growth forecasts for the 2012 through 2014 were also revised downward.
CEBR also said it expects the US economy to grow by 2.2 per cent next year,
after a 2.5 per cent expansion this year.
CEBR said it thinks corporate
spending in the US will eventually boost growth, although this is unlikely to
occur until 2012.
CEBR’s downgrade follows similar lower forecasts from other major organizations
like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
OECD lowered its 2010 growth forecast for the G7 nations to 1.5 per cent from
1.75 per cent – while also stating that a recession is unlikely.
also warned that the poor wheat harvest in eastern Europe and Russia
(due to drought and wildfires) will push up food price worldwide, reducing
consumer spending on other goods and services.