Our man James Whittaker is still hitting on better than 50 percent of his predictions through four weeks, and he puts his record on the line again this week with some fearless projections.
Saturday
West Ham vs Tottenham – Local time: 7:30am
The once fruitful partnership between Maurico Pochettino and Spurs had begun to feel like a marriage gone stale, so it was no surprise to see them finally announce the divorce this week. What’s less clear is who will fare better in the fallout. The Argentine coach will surely have a host of glamorous European suitors, while Spurs have run right into the arms of Jose Mourinho, which feels like a classic post-breakup rebound mistake. It might be fun for a while but they will regret it soon.
Whittaker pick: West Ham 1, Tottenham 2
Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton – Local time: 10am
The erratic but exciting wing play of Adama Traore is adding much-needed x-factor to a well-drilled Wolves side. Hard to break down at the back and with an element of organised chaos up front, they can sneak a win on the road against Bournemouth.
Whitaker pick: Bournemouth 0, Wolves 1
Arsenal vs Southampton – Local time: 10am
Data is apparently now more valuable than oil and there is no shortage of it flowing through the football world. Yet no sport has resisted this desire to measure and contain more than the beautiful game. The search for valuable metrics beyond the critical statistics of goals for and goals against has yielded some frankly comical results. Take this heat-map of Matteo Guendouzi’s movements this season.
It reminds me of the Rorschach inkblot test used by psychiatrists to diagnose mental disorders. What does it say, I wonder, about your personality, if you see, as one pundit did, evidence that the young midfielder has been the one bright spot for Arsenal this season? What if all you see are bright spots?
Whittaker pick: Arsenal 2, Southampton 0
Brighton vs Leicester – Local time: 10am
One intriguing new stat increasingly used by pundits to assess the contribution of luck is the expected goals metric. Statisticians determine a goal probability for each shot (eg: 0.1 for a long-range drive from the edge of the box) and add them to create an expected goals (XG) tally for the team. They have even created an alternative table with alternate results and points total based on expected goals. In this alternate universe Leicester is back in sixth, just a couple of points up on Brighton. Thankfully for the Foxes the real table is based on actual goals and they have reached the dizzying heights of second place.
Whittaker Pick: Brighton 1, Leicester 2
Everton vs Norwich – Local time: 10am
Marco Silva is one manager who wishes expected goals counted as much as real ones. Everton would be fifth. Having watched Everton a couple of times this year, I find the projection damaging to the credibility of the XG stat. It is less surprising to find that Norwich, in last place, is actually overperforming.
Whittaker Pick: Everton 3, Norwich 0
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool – Local time: 10am
Worthy winners in a frenetic yet refreshingly high-quality top of the table clash with Manchester City last week, Liverpool has real daylight between itself and the competition. The Reds blew a 10-point lead at Christmas last season but the difference this time is clear. Liverpool looks like a champion.
Whittaker pick: Crystal Palace 0, Liverpool 2
Watford vs Burnley – 10am
After notching its first win of the season last week, Watford is beginning to look a little less doomed. In Gerard Deulofeu, the streaky but talented former Barcelona prodigy, Watford has a player capable of causing problems for most defences, let alone a Burnley side still looking for its first road win this season.
Whittaker Pick: Watford 2, Burnley 1
Man City v Chelsea – Local time: 12:30pm
An intriguingly difficult fixture for Pep Guardiola’s side as it looks to bounce back from the disappointment of a chastening defeat to its title rivals. Chelsea has leapfrogged Manchester City after reeling off six wins in a row but it is unrealistic to expect Frank Lampard’s team to hang with City and Liverpool over the longer term. Despite its recent problems, City is still a formidable side.
Whittaker Pick: Man City 3, Chelsea 1
Sunday
Sheff United vs Man United – Local time: 11:30am
Of the many things to dislike about the introduction of VAR (video assisted refereeing) to English football is that it diminishes the unrestrained joy of scoring a goal, a feeling that no less an authority than England legend Gary Lineker described as ‘better than sex’. Would he feel the same now that a goal is no longer the catalyst for a frenzy of celebration, but the starting point for a convoluted arbitration process that makes Cayman’s Summary Court look like a bastion of efficiency? It might not be so bad if the correct decision was arrived at. But as Sheffield United found out last game when a dubious offside call denied a victory over Spurs, the technology is only as good as the officials who interpret it.
Whittaker Pick: Sheffield United 1, Manchester United 2
Monday
Aston Villa vs Newcastle – Local time: 3pm
The Steve Bruce derby sees his latest side Newcastle, on a good run of form, take on his previous side, Villa, in the Monday night match-up. We’re backing Villa, buoyed by the return of talismanic skipper Jack Grealish, to upset the form guide here.
Whittaker Pick: Aston Villa 1, Newcastle 0
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