The 2025 general election breaks down into 19 local elections in constituencies across all three islands.
After nomination day, we look at some of the most intriguing races.
1. The battle for the Brac
Cayman Brac East: Juliana O’Connor-Connolly (PPM), Dan Scott (CINP), Ruth Ann Bodden (IND), James Albert Christian (IND), Maxine McCoy-Moore (IND)
In his first foray into frontline politics, Dan Scott has a harder race than he might have expected. Juliana O’Connor Connolly reversed her long-trailed retirement plans to represent the Progressives in a district she has held for three decades.
Scott, who leads the Cayman Islands National Party, had built up momentum in the Sister Islands, however, and has the community links to be a serious challenger in this race.
Scott and his team know this is one they have to win to have a shot at taking the government. If his running mate Nickolas DaCosta is also successful, it will be a sign of a good night for the new party.
If Scott loses, however, and the PPM retains its grip on the Sister Islands, they have a clear path to victory nationally.
Adding to the complexity in Cayman Brac East is that there are five contenders in a constituency that had 373 voters last time around.
This is definitely a race to watch very closely.
2. Former Premier Panton, a key seat for new party
Newlands: Wayne Panton (TCCP), Alva Suckoo (PPM), Raul Gonzalez Jr. (IND)
Back in the PPM colours, Alva Suckoo may feel he has a chance to unseat Wayne Panton, who beat him handily in 2021 when both ran as independents.
Suckoo has held this seat previously, however, and his chances may be bolstered this time by a swing back to the Progressives after a chaotic four years of independent-led coalitions.
Panton’s chances will likely depend on the extent to which voters blame him, as the initial leader of the PACT, for the chaos.
Running with a party this time, he may argue that he has a better chance to implement his ideas with a group of like-minded individuals.
While he is not the leader, Panton is clearly an influential figure in the fledgling Caymanian Community Party, and this is one race they will feel they need to win. A Suckoo victory here would be a sign of a big night for the Progressives.
Raul Gonzales Jr. took just over 13% of the vote last time.
3. PPM seeks to hold the capital
George Town West: Pearlina McGaw-Lumsden (PPM), Craig Merren (CINP), Hunter Walton (IND), Tyree Hernandez (IND)
George Town South: Craig ‘Festa’ Frederick (PPM), Alric Lindsay (IND), Gary ‘Peanut’ Rutty (CINP)
The retirement of Barbara Conolly (George Town South) and David Wight (George Town West) may have put two relatively safe PPM seats in play. The Cayman Islands National Party, in particular, will be looking to make gains here, with two credible and well-liked community figureheads in Craig Merren (GTW) and Gary Rutty (GTS) who have been campaigning in those districts for over a year.
Alric Lindsay, who ran a close campaign against Conolly last election, also has a strong following in the area and could have a chance as a credible independent candidate in George Town West.
The PPM has Craig Frederick (GTS) of Swanky International fame and Pearlina McGaw-Lumsden (GTW) looking to hold those constituencies.
There’s high confidence from the PPM about McGaw-Lumsden, in particular, who took 22% of the vote in this district last time and now has the backing of Wight, who beat her in that race with more than 50%.
But both these races are expected to be quite close and could be central to the hopes of both the PPM and the CINP nationally.
4. Everyone has a chance in Prospect
Prospect: Sabrina Turner (TCCP), Crystal Gomez Wilson (PPM), Michael Myles (CINP)
Prospect was almost too close to call last time and is likely to be a tight three-horse race again.
Michael Myles, who was 47 votes short of a win in 2021, has credit in the bank across the community for the work he has done at Inspire Cayman Training. Running on a party ticket may give him the little boost he needs to take this seat.
Sabrina Turner has faced criticism for her performance as a Cabinet minister and for the loan deal with Wayne Panton. But, like her colleagues in the TCCP, she will point to the stand that she took on key issues, like the National Conservation Act, as evidence that she is forging a new ideological path with a different group in a political environment that is more conducive to getting things done.
The PPM previously held this constituency with Austin Harris, who came close last time, and with the party machinery behind her, Crystal Gomez Wilson would also be a factor in this race.
This one feels like it would be a bonus seat for the PPM – a want rather than a need. For the CINP and the TCCP, there is less margin for error. It is likely a ‘must win’.
5. Ebanks versus Ebanks in North Side
North Side: Jay Ebanks (IND), Justin Ebanks (PPM)
We include this one in our races to watch list not because it is expected to be especially close. Both candidates ran in the 2021 election, and Jay Ebanks took 300 more votes than Justin Ebanks that time.
It is possible that the PPM affiliation and the absence of Ezzard Miller could help Justin Ebanks this time, but that’s a huge margin to haul back. And there are few signs of dissatisfaction with the job that Jay Ebanks has done in the district.
He is largely credited with having done a decent job as roads and planning minister, and North Side, which hadn’t had a government MP in the seat for a number of years, got its share of new parks, road paving and housing projects.
The significance of the battle for North Side may not be obvious until after the ballot.
Realistically, no political party is likely to get an overall majority on its own.
And incumbent independent MPs, like Jay Ebanks in North Side, McKeeva Bush in West Bay West and Chris Saunders in Bodden Town West, could be the kingmakers if they retain their seats.
Despite the changed environment – with parties dominating the nomination list over independents – the direction of the government could still depend on intense after-the-vote negotiations with a handful of free agents.
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