The Cayman Islands could quite possibly have to deal with Tropical Storm or Hurricane Paloma by the end of this week.
A broad area of low pressure located about 125 miles southeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras boarder continued to become better organised Wednesday. Most major computer models forecasted the storm system, which was designated Invest 93L, to develop and turn toward the northeast by Friday and pass through the northwest Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday.
Cayman Islands Head of Meteorological Services Fred Sambula said the National Weather Service continued to monitor the system.
‘We’ll know more after the Hurricane Hunter explores the system,’ he said, referring to the first planned investigative US Air Force Reserve flight into the storm on Wednesday afternoon.
The National Hurricane Centre increased the probability the storm would develop into a tropical cyclone Wednesday from medium to high.
‘Satellite images and surface observations indicated that a tropical depression may be forming…’ the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook stated yesterday afternoon, noting that environmental conditions appeared favourable for development of the system. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate through the weekend and sea surface temperatures in the area are still plenty warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
Although most of the major computer models came into agreement on Wednesday that the storm would track to the northeast through the north-western Caribbean, they diverged on the strength. Two models, however, forecasted the storm strengthen to a hurricane, with one of them predicting it would become a major hurricane.
Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters said in his daily Wunder Blog posting the storm had the potential to imitate 2001’s Hurricane Michelle, which formed in the same region at this time of the year. That storm took only three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane.
Although Michelle passed about 150 miles west of Grand Cayman, it caused some $28 million of damage, mostly from heavy surf along the west coast.
The official five-day forecast from Cayman’s National Weather Service reflected the increased possibility the storm would track toward Cayman. Winds are expected to pick up on Saturday, coming from the southwest at 15 to 20 knots initially, then shifting from the northwest. The official forecast calls for rough seas of four to six feet on Saturday and Sunday.
Chief Meteorologist John Tibbetts said the five-day forecast was based on the belief the computer models were correct in turning the storm to the northeast. Depending on whether that turn actually occurred and also on the storm’s exact track in relation to the Cayman Islands, the forecast could be adjusted, Mr. Tibbetts said.
The weather system brought 1.8 inches of rain to Grand Cayman in the 24-hour period beginning Tuesday morning as was expected to bring an additional two to three inches of rain through this morning. A flood warning for low-lying areas on Grand Cayman was issued Tuesday afternoon. Mr. Tibbetts said the rainy conditions would probably continue through the weekend, especially if the storm turned toward Cayman as expected.
The inclement weather could cause a disruption to scheduled Pirates Week events, particularly Saturday’s Pirates Landing, float parade and street dance in George Town. The 11-day festival is scheduled to begin tonight.
Pirates Week Executive Director Dave Martins said no decision had been made regarding any postponements of events as of Wednesday and that a meeting would be held on Thursday morning to decide.
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