First tropical wave of 2022 hurricane season detected

The first tropical wave of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been detected by satellite imagery a little more than 100 miles off the southern coast of West Africa, just a few weeks before the official 1 June start of the season.

In a weather bulletin issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, on Monday, 9 May, forecasters said the tropical wave was moving west with little rainfall.

“An Atlantic tropical wave extends from the equator to 19N with an axis along 27W,” stated the bulletin. “It is moving westward at 15 (knots). No significant convection is currently associated with this wave.”

The likelihood of further development of this weather system is not clear, as the NHC does not have it listed in its two-day or five-day forecasts.

The system poses no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands or the wider Caribbean.

If the storm does develop, this will be the seventh consecutive year that a weather system strengthened past the stage of a tropical wave before the official start of the hurricane season which runs to 30 Nov. each year.

In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana developed on 8 May, then in 2016, Hurricane Alex formed on 12 Jan. In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene developed on 19 April, and in 2018, Tropical Storm Alberto formed on 25 May. In 2019, Subtropical Storm Andrea developed on 20 May.

During 2020, which also was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history,  two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, formed on 16 and 27 May, respectively.

Then finally, Tropical Storm Ana formed on 23 May last year.

On 15 May, the NHC, which is a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is expected to issue its 2022 hurricane forecast. Shortly thereafter, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service is expected to release its own forecasts after analysing the NHC’s predictions, in addition to those issued by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

In its April forecast, CSU called for an above-average hurricane season with nine named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which are expected to strengthen to major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5.