Although it is expected to pass some 250 miles south of Grand Cayman, Hurricane Felix could still bring high damaging surf to the south and west coasts of the island.
The Atlantic Basin is heading into the most active part of the hurricane season, which peaks around September 10th. |
The sixth named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, Felix intensified rapidly over the weekend, going from a tropical depression early Saturday morning to a strong Category 2 Hurricane by late Sunday morning.
A high pressure ridge to the north is steering Felix westward, much like Hurricane Dean was two weeks ago.
The computer models were in strong agreement with regard to Felix’s southerly path, but the storm is still likely to bring bad weather conditions to Grand Cayman starting Monday night. As a result, the Cayman Islands Government issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Grand Cayman at 10am on Sunday.
Although Cayman’s National Meteorological Service said Sunday morning it was too early to forecast exactly what kind of conditions Grand Cayman would see from the storm, Chief Meteorologist John Tibbetts said to expect deteriorating weather conditions starting Monday evening.
Of particular concern is high surf.
‘The storm is expected to be transitioning from a Category 3 to a Category 4 as it passes south of us,’ Mr. Tibbetts said. ‘So it will have a degree of intensity to push some waves toward us.’
Barbara Carby, director of Hazard Management Cayman Islands, warned of possible damaging surf.
‘Many residents will remember that hurricanes Mitch, Wilma and Michelle passed far from the island, yet tropical storm force winds, waves and storm surge damaged coastal areas,’ she said. ‘We would like residents on the south and west coasts to take precautions.’
In addition, the Meteorological Office’s computer model was forecasting one to three feet of storm surge.
On Saturday Ms Carby urged residents check their personal preparedness and replenish any supplies that may have been used during the Hurricane Dean experience two weeks ago.
The breeze will likely pick up from Monday afternoon, Mr. Tibbetts said.
‘You could see the wind get up enough to cause rough seas from then,’ he said, adding that marine warning would be issued for Monday.
As of 10am Sunday, Felix was located about 50 miles north of Aruba and about 555 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It was moving west-northwest at 18 mph and that general motion was expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
At the time, Hurricane-force winds only extended 15 miles outward from the centre of Felix, but tropical storm force winds extended 115 miles from centre.
If it continues on its projected path, Felix would pass 254 miles south of Grand Cayman around 3am Tuesday morning. The storm is predicted to make landfall in Belize as a Category 4 hurricane with winds over 140 mph.
As Felix passes Grand Cayman, the outer bands of the hurricane are expected to bring squally conditions and heavy showers.
The official five-day forecast on the Cayman Islands Government website calls for winds of 17 to 23 mph, with gusts ‘near tropical force winds in an around squalls.’
Tuesday’s forecast calls for rain and thunder storms and rough sea conditions with waves running five to seven feet. The rough seas and windy conditions are expected to last through Wednesday.
The 2007 Atlantic basin is heading into the most active part of its hurricane season, which peaks around 10 September. In addition to Hurricane Felix, there is another area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean. That system, which has been labelled 98L, could develop further and enter the Caribbean Sea sometime this week.
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