The now-you-see-it, now-you-don’t
weather system that was formerly known as Tropical Storm Gaston was still
struggling to revive itself Monday as it approached the northern Leeward
Gaston dissipated from a tropical
storm to an area of low pressure Friday after encountering dry air. It
maintained a well-defined centre of circulation, but lost most of its organised
thunderstorm activity. Although it was still surrounded by dry air Monday,
ex-Gaston was heading into a moister environment in the Eastern Caribbean,
where wind shear is also very light.
The weather system, which
Accuweather was calling a ‘tropical rain storm’ Monday, had winds of 30 miles
per hour with tropical-storm-force gusts up to 40 miles per hour.
The National Hurricane Center in
Miami said there was a high chance – 70 per cent – of Gaston becoming a
tropical cyclone again by 1pm Wednesday.
Should Gaston resurrect, its future
threat to the Cayman Islands would depend on the track it takes. The longer it
takes to reorganise, the better the chance that it will remain on a westerly
track that could impact the Cayman Islands. Computer model guidance on Gaston
was split, with some forecast tracks taking the storm northwest to a likely end
in the mountains of Hispaniola, while other models had the storm travelling a
more southerly course, hitting or skirting just south of Jamaica late this
week. If the storm were to impact the Cayman Islands, it would mostly likely do
so next weekend – the six-year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan’s visit here.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin,
the eighth named storm of the hurricane season, Tropical Storm Hermine, was
heading for an early Tuesday landfall around the Texas/Mexico border.
In addition, there were numerous
computer models showing development of another tropical wave moving off of
Africa, forecasting the genesis of Tropical Storm Igor later this week.