Premier Wayne Panton is under increasing pressure, both from his own PACT coalition and the Opposition group, to step down ahead of a proposed vote of no confidence, scheduled for Tuesday morning.
West Bay West MP McKeeva Bush’s decision to withdraw his support from the government on Thursday left Panton’s group without a working majority and parliament deadlocked at 9-9, with PACT’s slender advantage dependent on Speaker Katherine Ebanks-Wilks, who can vote only to break a tie.
The requirement for a ‘quorum’ of 10 members of parliament, as well as the Speaker to be present, for a meeting of the House to take place, means the current split is likely untenable in the long term.
Throughout the weekend, various factions were meeting in an effort to shore up the PACT, potentially under new leadership, or form a new coalition led by the Progressives.
No announcement from either side was forthcoming at the time of going to press.
Meanwhile, an online poll was circulating Monday, taking the public’s temperature on key issues surrounding the current divisions and what government’s priorities should be.
Under the banner of ‘Cayman Decides’, the anonymous poll asks voters a series of questions, including which of three MPs considered to be the main candidates for premier – Wayne Panton, Juliana O’Connor-Connolly and Progressives leader Roy McTaggart – is most likely to look out for the best interests of Caymanians.
Against that fractious backdrop, a motion of a ‘lack of confidence’ in the government is set to be debated. If successful, Cayman could have a new government by Tuesday night.
Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the vote:
What is being discussed on the PACT side?
Key members of the PACT group, including Panton, were still hoping to hold the coalition together. The options for them include asking Speaker Katherine Ebanks-Wilks to step down from that role and join the government. That would mean nominating a speaker from outside the elected members, giving PACT a 10-9 majority in parliament – enough to pass legislation, crucially including the budget, if everyone is present and united.
Another option is a new leader that could attract some of the defectors back to the group and prevent further departures. Deputy Premier Juliana O’Connor-Conolly seemed the most likely candidate, though Financial Services Minister André Ebanks has also been mentioned as a possible option within the current government group.
What are the Opposition group seeking?
The Opposition group, comprising six Progressives and three independent MPs, hopes to secure at least one more MP from the crumbling PACT coalition to their side, giving them the numbers to propose an alternate government.
Again O’Connor-Connolly – who ran with the Progressives in 2021 having served as education minister in their last administration, before switching to PACT after the election – was being discussed as someone who would consider the move.
Is the vote of no confidence likely to succeed?
For a vote of no confidence in a sitting government to be successful, a two-thirds majority of the House are required to support it. That’s 13 members.
There was no indication at press time that the Progressives had that kind of support.
Nine members signed the motion triggering Tuesday’s meeting. Others were keeping their cards close to their chest Monday night. Perhaps significantly O’Connor-Connolly’s name was listed on the motion, but it remained unsigned and she has not given an indication of how she will vote.
What happens if a majority of MPs support the motion of no confidence?
As stated above, it requires a ‘special majority’ of 13 for a motion of no confidence to depose a sitting government. But a simple 10-8 vote against Panton and PACT would leave him in an untenable position.
He would almost certainly be compelled to resign.
In those circumstances, it remains theoretically possible that he could continue at the head of a minority government, but their capacity to get legislation passed would be severely compromised and government could grind to a halt.
Would there be new elections?
The ability to call a new general election remains a joker in the pack for the government.
If Panton and PACT were to lose the vote in parliament and the behind-the-scenes negotiations do not result in a new government that commands the support of the majority of members, then it would be open to him to go to the governor and seek to trigger a new election.
That comes with the obvious risk of losing seats from a frustrated public, however.
There is also scope for the governor to ask the MPs to try to decide among themselves if a new coalition can be formed before an election is triggered. However, for that to work, the MPs must say whether they believe this can be done.
If there was another group within the existing 19 that believed they could command the majority, then the governor could assent to that and the leader of that faction would become premier after a vote in parliament.
How did we get here?
PACT has seen a 12-6 majority dwindle to 9-9 in the space of a year. If we count the Speaker, (who does get a deciding vote to break a tie) the coalition has gone from 13-6 to 10-9.
PACT first lost Deputy Premier Chris Saunders in circumstances that were never made publicly clear. Dwayne Seymour – then Labour Minister – resigned in September with an attack on Panton’s leadership, and McKeeva Bush, who had supported PACT as an independent on the back benches, withdrew his support Thursday, saying government had its priorities wrong.
What is the cause of the current divisions?
The PACT group has been rife with divisions almost from day one, according to sources close to the administration.
Some difference of opinion is expected, especially in a coalition of independents, but those differences appear to have come to a head during the formation of the budget – government’s $2 billion spending plan for the next two years.
Ministers are understood to be deeply divided over spending and policy priorities, with big ticket infrastructure projects causing the most friction.
It is understood that budget priorities is as much a part of the negotiations as jockeying for Cabinet and leadership positions.
Does the public get a say?
Cayman’s Westminster system means leaders and even governments can change without input from the public.
The people elected 19 individual MPs, and it is up to them to determine which of them are part of the government. That becomes more complex when political parties are less established and there is no clear winner.
What is happening now is essentially a slow-motion repeat of what took place over the course of more than a week in the wake of the April 2021 election, with the composition of the rival groups shifting in an effort to form a coalition that a majority of MPs can support.
Several MPs habitually consult their constituents on such matters and it is really down to the individual how much input they take from their constituents. Nationally, an anonymous SurveyMonkey poll is circulating asking multiple questions about the situation – though it is not clear if this was generated by any of the politicians or groups.
The ‘poll to inform what happens next with the Government of the Cayman Islands’ asks who people believe would best represent their interests as premier, who they believe would ‘have the courage to stand up against corruption’ and asks to rank their priorities both for the government and the upcoming budget.
Social media was rife with theories and coalition conspiracies over the holiday weekend. Some vocal commenters sough to apply their own pressure to keep the PACT intact, while turning up the heat on the Progressives, who were in government from 2013 through 2021.
What happens if the budget doesn’t get passed?
The impending budget debate adds additional time pressure to the negotiations.
Government’s legal authority to spend money after 31 Dec. depends on the passage of a new appropriations bill through parliament.
Without that, Cayman would be headed for a shut down.
It is unlikely that would happen, however, with the 19 legislators likely to agree to compromise to get the budget passed. The law also allows for a short-term budget to be passed in extreme circumstances to ensure continuity of government. That could be an option if there is a change of leadership or government and more time is needed to reformulate the spending plan.
- Additional reporting by Reshma Ragoonath
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