After latest government collapse, what happens now?

The resignations of four key government members Thursday leaves the Cayman Islands’ Parliament hopelessly divided.

No individual or group now commands the loyalty of the majority of the 19 MPs, making it impossible to pass legislation or to govern effectively.

So what happens now? 

Various groups were huddling Thursday afternoon following the surprise announcement that Deputy Premier André Ebanks, Sustainability Minister Katherine Ebanks-Wilks, Health and Wellness Minister Sabrina Turner and MP Heather Bodden had resigned from government.

Here we look at the options on the table.

1. An early election

Given the proximity to the general election, which was expected in April, former Deputy Premier André Ebanks indicated a preference for an early poll.

Speaking at a press conference following the resignations Thursday, he said the four breakaway members would run collectively and seek to partner with others to run as a group.

Given that she now commands the support of, at most, six MPs, Juliana O’Connor-Connolly can’t continue to govern without the support of the opposition. In those circumstances, she could ask the governor to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. It’s also open to the governor to make the call herself.

The constitution dictates that there must be at least two months from the dissolution of Parliament to the election date. The practical challenges of organising a national poll could see that extend to three, making February the earliest a general election could reasonably be expected.

2. A minority government

It is possible that, with the agreement of the governor, O’Connor-Connolly and her UPM coalition could continue as a minority government. Such an arrangement would require the agreement of either the Progressives or Ebanks’ breakaway group. That doesn’t mean they would be forming a coalition. Far from it.

In such circumstances, the opposition, for example, would agree to support the current grouping to continue to run the territory for a short period. Without at least some co-operation from across the floor, the ruling coalition would not even be able to call sessions of Parliament.

Such a deal would likely involve an agreement not to pass any meaningful legislation or commit to spending priorities that would tie the hands of a future government. It would essentially serve as a holding pattern to preserve the potential April election date.

That’s exactly what happened in late 2012 when the arrest of then-Premier McKeeva Bush precipitated a no-confidence motion that led to the collapse of his United Democratic Party government. After that, O’Connnor-Connolly briefly became the premier of a minority government of five breakaway members, with the conditional support of the PPM, who then went on to win the 2013 general election.

3. Another new coalition

Another option on the table could be a genuine coalition between the Progressives and some or all of what remains of the United People’s Movement.

O’Connor-Connolly, who was previously a member of the party, and Seymour, who ran with the Progressives initially in the 2021 vote, are understood to be being tapped up to return to the party’s side ahead of the next election.

A temporary coalition with O’Connor-Connolly at the helm is plausible.

But it would be open to the Progressives to seek the support of four other members and form the government itself, with the party’s leader Joey Hew temporarily taking over as premier before seeking a fresh mandate from the people in the general election.

What are the current groupings?

A majority of 10 members is needed to run the government.

As it stands, and with much in flux, the groupings among the 19 elected members are as follows:

The United People’s Movement coalition (7): Juliana O’Connor-Connolly, Dwayne Seymour, Jay Ebanks, Kenneth Bryan, McKeeva Bush, Isaac Rankine, Bernie Bush

The Progressives (6): Joey Hew, Roy McTaggart, Moses Kirkconnell, David Wight, Barbara Conolly, Sir Alden McLaughlin (Speaker)

The breakaway four (4): André Ebanks, Katherine Ebanks-Wilks, Sabrina Turner, Heather Bodden

Unaffiliated independents (2): Wayne Panton, Chris Saunders