Colorado State University has predicted a higher-than-average hurricane season for 2025.
The university’s Tropical Meteorology Project, one of the leading authorities on Atlantic hurricane forecasting, gave the outlook in its April forecast.
The prediction by meteorologists and research scientists refers to the probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
“All of our model guidance is pointing towards an above-normal season,” they said. Citing above-average sea-surface temperatures, they predicted 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes, four of which reaching Category 3 or above.
BELOW 2024 PREDICTION
Long-term averages show a typical season results in 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
While the CSU forecast suggested 2025 will bring above-normal activity, the forecast is still below its seasonal prediction for last year, which called for 17 to 25 named storms.
Phil Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist and research scientist, and the team from the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU, also suggest that around the peak time for hurricane season activity in mid-September, a transition to La Niña conditions is likely to occur.
The scientists acknowledge a degree of uncertainty in the transition to La Niña conditions and its possible intensity, but when, and if it does occur, there is typically less high-level vertical wind shear, which tends to suppress hurricane development and activity in the Atlantic.
The report states that warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean correlates well with what is typically seen in April before active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
FORECAST UPDATES
CSU updates its 2025 hurricane forecast on 11 June, 9 July and 6 Aug. This is the 42nd year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
These seasonal forecasts were developed by the late William Gray, who pioneered seasonal Atlantic hurricane prediction and was the lead author on the forecasts until his death in 2016.
This article originally appeared in Compass Media’s 2025 Emergency Guide.
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