Cayman travel to US dropped in June amid global slowdown

Cayman Islands residents travelled to the United States in significantly lower numbers this June, with an 8.7% drop compared to June 2024, according to recently released data from the US National Travel and Tourism Office.

The decline is part of a broader global trend that saw overall US inbound visits from overseas markets (excluding Canada and Mexico) fall 3.4% year-on-year, with 2.8 million international arrivals recorded – just 80% of the total seen in June 2019.

JPMorgan has attributed the downturn to growing backlash against US trade policies and concerns over the treatment of foreign visitors at US borders.

Among Cayman’s outbound travellers, the sharpest drop came from those travelling on business visas, which fell by 34%, consistent with a typical summer lull but also reflecting broader uncertainty with respect to US travel.

Student visa travel also declined sharply – by 23% – a decrease likely tied to increased scrutiny and visa processing hurdles for international students. One Caymanian student, previously accepted and committed to a US university, told the Compass she changed her plans and will now study in the UK after her parents raised safety concerns and objected to US requirements to open her social media accounts for inspection.

“My mother felt that I would not be safe in the United States,” she said.

Tourist travel the US also saw a dip in June, with 4.7% fewer Cayman residents traveling under that category compared to the previous year.

The decline in Cayman travel mirrors wider regional patterns. Jamaica saw a 15.9% drop in US arrivals for the month, while the Bahamas fell 3%, the British Virgin Islands 1.5% and Bermuda 0.8%. Overall, Caribbean travel to the US fell 4.3% in June.

Modest growth in 2025

Despite the June dip, Cayman’s travel to the US for the first half of 2025 recorded a modest increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. This growth was driven by the months of January and April, which were the only two months to record year-on-year increases. All other months this year have recorded decreases, with February seeing a 10% drop.

So far this year, student visa travel from Cayman is down 4.1% and business visa travel is down 1.2%. However, the total number has been buoyed by a 3.6% increase in tourist visa travel.

Still, Cayman’s travel volume has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, only 46,484 residents travelled to the US, down from 70,885 in 2019. Travel to the US rebounded somewhat in 2023 to 59,627 but then fell again by 22% in 2024.

Global trends

Cayman and the wider Caribbean are not alone in pulling back from US travel. Across the globe, international arrivals to the United States have dropped in 2025, a trend widely attributed to mounting geopolitical tensions, economic instability and growing unease over stringent immigration and visa policies introduced under the Trump administration.

Canada, historically one of the United States’ top travel partners, has registered a notable downturn this year. Statistics Canada reported that return trips by Canadians from the US dropped 31.9% in May and continued to decline in June, with auto travel falling 33.1% and air arrivals down 22.1%, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year decline.

Many of the US’s top inbound markets saw declines in June, with Ecuador down 14.1%, South Korea 10.7% and Australia 10.2%. Western Europe fell 2.5% overall, including drops from the UK (-1.1%), Germany (-3.7%) and France (-5.5%). Northern Europe saw even sharper decreases, led by Denmark (-17.3%) and Norway (-13.9%).

This downturn is impacting the broader travel industry.

Tourism Economics and STR note that while international inbound visitors account for just 4–7% of total US hotel demand, even small dips can lead to substantial losses. They estimate that a 5% decline in international inbound arrivals would equate to 3 million fewer room nights sold in a single year. A 1% drop would translate to a loss of approximately 654,000 room nights. For context, US hotels sold 1.3 billion room nights in 2024.

According to a Reuters report, analysts warn that weakening travel demand, reflected in bleak earnings forecasts from travel-related companies, could wipe out billions from the US economy this year.