Wet start to hurricane season

Cayman Islands residents should carry their umbrellas this week because a wet start to hurricane season is forecast. 

In addition, some computer models are already hinting that a possible topical depression or storm could affect our general area late this week or early next week. 

Cayman Islands National Weather Service meteorologist Avalon Porter said the forecast for Grand Cayman on Wednesday and Thursday only called for partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers, but more significant rain is expected for the end of the week. 

“There’s a broad area of low pressure south of us and it’s forecast to slowly drift north and bring more rain on Friday and Saturday,” he said, adding that Grand Cayman could see an inch to two inches of rain. The system could linger even longer, but Mr. Porter said that more than five days out it was too difficult to predict. 

Some areas in the western Caribbean have already received significant rainfall in the past days, but Grand Cayman has been on the fringe of the system and only seen some widely scattered showers. 

“All the heavy weather has been about halfway between Jamaica and Cayman Brac,” Mr. Porter said. The broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean is expected to consolidate and could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, with some forecasting a track that would take it into Cayman’s general area. 

Meteorologist Jeff Masters of Weather Underground spoke about the possibility in his blog on Tuesday. 

“All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday,” he wrote. “This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week.” 

Masters noted that sea surface temperatures are already above average for this time of year in the Caribbean and plenty warm enough to support tropical cyclone development. 

“Some recent [model] runs… have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba,” he wrote. “The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of two to four inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.” 

Tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin is generally infrequent in June and the average date historically for formation of the first named storm isn’t until 9 July. However, there have been some significant hurricanes in June, including Category-4 Hurricane Audrey in 1957 and Category-3 Hurricane Alma in 1966.  

When tropical cyclones do form in the early part of the hurricane season, they are most likely to form in the western Caribbean. Dating back to 1851, more than half the tropical cyclones that have formed in the Atlantic Basin during the first 10 days of June have formed in the western Caribbean. 

Be prepared  

Simon Boxall, public relations and communications officer at Hazard Management Cayman Islands said his office was already keeping a sharp eye on the developing low pressure system to the south. 

He said Cayman Islands residents should already have certain preparations made for the start of hurricane season. 

“People should already have a plan of where they are going to shelter [in the event of a hurricane],” he said. “A lot of people base this decision on their experience with Hurricane Ivan, but that’s probably not appropriate, especially if they live in West Bay or North Side.” 

Mr. Boxall explained that because Hurricane Ivan passed to the south of Grand Cayman, North Side and a lot of areas in West Bay didn’t feel the brunt of the storm. A future storm could pass from another direction, impacting other parts of Grand Cayman more significantly. 

“People really need to figure out where they will go if there’s a hurricane.” In addition, Mr. Boxall said people should have drinking water and extra nonperishable food on hand, and to make sure important documents and keepsakes like photographs are stored properly. 

“They should also plan a place to keep their vehicles in a storm,” he said. “Hurricane Ivan caused a lot of disruption because it destroyed 50 per cent of the vehicles here.” 

Director Hazard Management Cayman Islands Director McCleary Frederick noted that Cayman was at risk for a range of hazards and said residents should have a disaster plan and a survival kit available for use at all times. 

“At the start of hurricane season residents should review their plans, reconfirm emergency sheltering arrangements, decide on an evacuation route, check that insurance policies are current and provide appropriate cover,” he said. “Residents should also trim trees, check shutters, test generators and ensure that your house can weather at least a minor storm.”  

Mr. Frederick asked residents to help those who might not know what to do to prepare for hurricane season. 

“I think most residents are very aware of the hurricane threat, but if you know of persons who have arrived in the islands recently, perhaps you can help them to be prepared and develop a plan,” he said. “Being better prepared will make recovery from disasters easier.”