Not a good indication of who will win the tourney
When looking through the various pools in the Rugby World Cup it is pretty clear which two teams from each group should progress to the quarter finals.
“I think in some ways we’ve gone back a couple of decades to where you could pretty much ignore all of the pool games because you know exactly who was going to be in the last eight, and I think this year is probably going to be much the same in terms of predicting who is going to make the top eight. I think it was different four years ago,” said Richard Adams, technical director of rugby with the Cayman Islands Rugby Union.
The play during the pool phase is also not necessarily a good indication of who the likely winner of the tournament will be.
However, this does not mean that the pool phase is of no real consequence in this year’s tournament.
“If you have an easy pool and you win all your games by 60 points, then when you hit the big boys it becomes very difficult to lift your game that next step,” said Mr. Adams.
What this means in terms of preparation for the later rounds is that teams in a more challenging pool are likely to be better prepared for the hard games that follow from the quarter finals onwards.
“When you go back and you look at New Zealand, they will get one game in that pool against France, and the same of France, both of those teams get one hard pool game and they’re into the quarter finals,” said Mr. Adams.
In pool B, England and Argentina might do a bit better, as they also get to face Scotland, so the teams progressing to the next phase will likely get two tough games in that group.
“Australia and Ireland, again two tough games tops, and that’s if Italy show up, which we never know. If they show up and they’re on form, they could be pushing for the pool, if they don’t then again it’s also one game,” said Mr. Adams.
Watch Pool D
He believes that out of all the teams, the top two teams from pool D will have the best preparation.
“South Africa and Wales have probably got the best pool of the lot, and there’s really not going to be any easy games other than Namibia,” he said.
Injuries can play a major part in the tournament, which is why top teams will often run a second string team in their easier group games.
“The more fancied teams will put a B side out there, rest their A side, and probably still win by 15 or 20 points,” said Mr. Adams.
Change is easy
However, an unexpected result early on in the pool phase can change all of that.
“Everything changes, and you now have to put your best guys out and you can’t stick to the plan you came in with,” said Mr. Adams.
“You get into that quarter final stage, you get a lot of unknowns coming into the equation. Who’s travelling, who’s travelling the furthest, who has the shortest rest, who’s played the hardest games, who’s lost the most players, who’s lost the most key players?”
Even a single injury loss can be catastrophic for a team if a key player is involved. The same can happen when a player receives a ban for foul play and is unable to take part in a vital game.
“Take New Zealand if they lose Dan Carter early on that changes the form and what’s happening in your team. Australia loses Quade Cooper, that’s going to change the shape of your team,” said Mr. Adams.
The same goes for key impact players who might not be first choice in their position any longer.
“Jonny Wilkinson, again could change the shape of the England team, even though he might not be the No. 1 starting guy he’s the guy they rely on to come in and do a job in the last 20 minutes,” he said. “South Africa loses John Smit in scrummaging against Australia it’s a whole different ball game.”
Mr. Adams also said that big game experience is a very important aspect of playing in the World Cup.
“Who’s had the experience of winning a World Cup or being in a World Cup final before? Those things are huge.”
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