Tropical Depression 11 expected to strengthen today

Update 10am (12 Aug): Tropical Depression 11 is forecast to gradually strengthen later today and is expected to become a tropical storm, US forecasters have predicted.

The National Hurricane Center, in its latest advisory this morning, said the depression remains just below tropical storm strength.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today,” the advisory added.

The depression is moving west at about 14 miles per hour.

“A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week,” the NHC added.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts, forecasters stated.

No watches or warnings are in effect at this time.

Tropical Depression 11 is located 1,320 miles east-south-east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Cayman’s National Weather Service, in its 10am bulletin today, said this system poses no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands and it will continue to monitor its development.

Updated 4:05pm (11 Aug):

US forecasters have upgraded the tropical disturbance flagged Tuesday morning to Tropical Depression 11.

In an advisory, issued Tuesday afternoon, the US National Hurricane Center has projected the depression to continue to strengthen.

“Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night,” it said.

According to the NHC, the depression poses no hazard to land at this time.

It is located about 1,450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Its present movement is west, or 280 degrees, at 16 miles per hour, according to the latest report.

“This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts,” the NHC said.

The NHC’s latest image of the projected path of tropical depression 11.

The NHC has said that shower and thunderstorm activity have decreased somewhat since Tuesday morning, “but new activity is now forming near the system’s center of circulation”.

It said, in its 2pm report, that if these storms persist, advisories would likely be initiated on a tropical depression later Tuesday or Tuesday night.

“Even if a depression does not form by tonight, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph during the next couple of days,” it added.

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Forecasters have projected a new tropical disturbance that formed 900 miles off the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands to develop into a tropical depression by later today.

“Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression as early as later today if these development trends continue,” the US National Hurricane Center said.

The NHC said first-light visible satellite imagery has shown a “better-defined center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure system”.

Forecasters have given the tropical disturbance a high chance of formation over the next two days and a further chance of advancement through five days.

According to today’s projections, the system’s associated shower and thunderstorm activity became more organised overnight.

“The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by the end of the week,” the NHC said.

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