While still calling for slightly above-average hurricane activity, Colorado State University’s tropical forecasting arm has made a small downward adjustment to its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
In its most recent update, issued on 9 July, the university’s atmospheric modelling team forecast 16 named storms, with eight expected to become hurricanes and three strengthening to ‘major’ hurricane status.
Each of these figures are one below the earlier forecast issued at the start of the hurricane season, when the Tropical Meteorology Project team called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, reaching category 3 or above.
The meteorologists said the primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook was a high level of wind shear, which is limiting tropical cyclone formation and is expected to continue for at least the next few weeks.
“High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” the scientists at the university said.
Despite the current high levels of wind shear, the forecasters cautioned that other factors, including warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures, will likely result in environmental conditions conducive for hurricane formation and intensification.
As a result, they still anticipate “a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean”.
The forecasters also reminded the public, “It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”
They encouraged residents in the region to prepare regardless of predicted activity.
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