Open Cayman to vaccinated visitors

While I understand the premier’s first responsibility regarding COVID-19 is the safety of the Cayman people, I do question why decisions seem to have a strong bias towards not reopening the borders. 

I would like to know the mathematical probability that a person over two weeks post both vaccine shots, with a negative test prior to departure and a negative test on arrival, will transmit the virus to others after entering the country. 

It seems to me that persons meeting the above criteria should be allowed entry to the country after the onsite test or, alternatively, restricted in quarantine for no more than four days. 

At some point, refusing to open the borders in a reasonable manner will cause irreparable harm to Cayman’s economy, including the tourism and real estate sectors.

 Robert Shearer

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Very well said. If people arriving here from abroad have had their vaccinations, they should not need to quarantine. Government need to look at the decision made in Aruba, on similar lines. The tourist industry here is on a thread for survival and needs immediate, but sensible relief from Government and the very conservative approach that they are following now.

  2. Be aware that fully vaccinated people are still able to contract the virus and/or be asymptomatic transmitters. Having said that, the 10 or 14 day quarantine period for a fully vaccinated and PCR tested person is too onerous.

  3. I agree with the question on mathematical probability of passing covid-19. However, 4 days is still too long to quarantine. If you have both shots, are past two weeks, have a negative test 72 hours prior to arrival and then tested on arrival. Once the test is returned in 24-hours or less and is negative you should be free to move about.To go further if you are two weeks past both shots and have a negative test 72 hours before arrival you should not have to quarantine at all.
    Government need to work to open the borders and welcome tourists back again to help the economy and provide jobs to citizens.

  4. Robert, we appreciate your thoughtful letter and the very important question you posed:

    We calculate the mathematical probability that “a person over two weeks post both vaccine shots, with a negative test prior to departure and a negative test on arrival, will transmit the virus to others after entering the country” is 1 in 32,000 based on the following conservative assumptions:

    1% probability of having COVID-19 based on current US prevalence (this is a high estimate as some sources indicate prevalence of ~0.3%)
    x
    25% probability of COVID-19 of asymptomatic infection after vaccination (assumes vaccination reduces risk by 75%)
    x
    25% probability of missing COVID-19 infection with pre-arrival PCR test
    x
    5% probability of missing COVID-19 infection with on arrival PCR test
    = 1 in 32,000

    If we add on the day 4 test with moderate restrictions (such as mask wearing indoors) for the first 4 days:
    5% probability of missing COVID-19+ with day 4 test
    = 1 in 640,000

    If we reduce rate of transmission by ensuring >70% of all front line tourism employees are vaccinated (assuming 75% risk reduction of infection after vaccination) the risk of transmission is:
    = 1 in 1,800,000

    Of course, the >90% vaccination of Cayman residents over age 60 and with high risk medical conditions provides additional risk reduction. For reference, the risk of dying from COVID-19 for individuals under 40 is about 1 in 10:000.

    We believe that all risks, including reopening the Islands to vaccinated visitors without quarantine, have to be put in context. A couple of examples: the lifetime risk of dying in a car accident as of 2019 is 1 in 107 and the risk of dying of from a bee sting is 1 in 60,000:
    See: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

    Jim Leavitt and Michael Tibbetts, MD