New system strengthens in Atlantic as Fred continues north of Cuba

12 August 2021

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A new tropical depression is likely to form this weekend near the Lesser Antilles, National Hurricane Center forecasters have said.

This comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Fred, which has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. However, it is set to regain strength in the coming days.

The developing system is far from the Cayman Islands at this point; however, the direction of its forecast track is one that residents should keep a close watch over.

Cayman Islands National Weather Service chief meteorologist Kerry Powery told the Cayman Compass that while it is too early to speak about potential local impacts from this system, “the fact that some islands in the Eastern Caribbean could be facing another tropical storm almost a week apart should help remind residents of the Cayman Islands that similar situations like this can occur throughout the hurricane season”.

A small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1,200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. – Photo: National Hurricane Center

The Miami-based NHC, in its Thursday afternoon advisory, said the system has a 60% chance of formation chance through the next 48 hours and 70% through the next five days.

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Forecasters said satellite-derived wind data from Thursday morning indicated that the small area of low pressure developed along a tropical wave about 1,200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

“However, the low [pressure system] does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,” the advisory said.

The NHC said environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development.

“A tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 miles per hour across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there should monitor its progress,” the NHC said.

Fred expected to regain strength

Meanwhile, the weakened Tropical Depression Fred continued its west-northwestward track to the north of Cuba Thursday.

However, the NHC said, “slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida”.

Forecasters said the tropical depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 miles per hour, and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday.

This National Hurricane Center graphic shows Tropical Depression Fred’s latest track Thursday afternoon.

“A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba [Thursday] and
Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday,” the NHC said.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the centre, the advisory said.

“Little change in strength is expected through Thursday,” the NHC said, adding this will change into the weekend.