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Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening and its latest projected path puts it closer to the Sister Islands on Tuesday, forecasters have said.
The Cayman Islands remains under a Hurricane Warning.
As of 7:30am, Tropical Storm Rafael was approximately 230 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, 192 miles off Little Cayman, and 184 miles from Cayman Brac, moving northwest at 13 mph.
According to the latest projections from the National Weather Service, the storm’s closest point of approach will be 16 miles southwest of Little Cayman, which will put it 27 miles southwest of Cayman Brac and 74 miles northeast of Grand Cayman.
Tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher, with gusts up to 74 mph, are expected.
“The storm’s latest projected path shows a slight shift toward the west of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, with peak conditions expected over the Sister Islands on Tuesday evening,” the National Weather Service said.
Regiment teams have been deployed to the Sister Islands ahead of the arrival of the storm Tuesday morning, the Compass understands.
National Weather Service Chief Meteorologist Kerry Powery, in an 8am update, said the system is becoming more organised as it moves southwest of Jamaica.
“Environmental conditions remain favourable for further development, and as such, there’s a possibility that this system could strengthen to a hurricane in or around the Cayman area by Tuesday night,” he said.
National Weather Service Chief Meteorologist Kerry Powery audio update at 8am.
Rafael’s maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 60 mph with higher gusts, taking it close to Category 1 strength, according to data from the US National Hurricane Center.
“Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands, with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the NHC said Tuesday morning in its 4am advisory.
It noted that tropical-storm-force winds are extending outward up to 105 miles from the centre of the system.
Expected impacts
Powery said rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael will begin impacting the Cayman Islands from Tuesday morning, with the highest accumulations expected between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall of up to 7.5 inches can be expected between Tuesday and Friday, 5-8 Nov.
“Thunderstorms are also expected to accompany the system; as such, expect an increase in lightning activity. Winds are expected to gradually increase from [Tuesday] afternoon, peaking around [Tuesday] night,” Powery said.
Tropical-storm-force winds greater than 39 miles per hour are expected across the Sister Islands, with higher gusts in and around heavy showers.
Grand Cayman can expect winds of 23–29 mph, with gusts of up 39 mph and above.
Waves heights associated with the storm are expected to be 9-13 feet, according to the National Weather Service.
Flood and marine warnings are in effect for all islands.
“All vessels should seek safe harbour, and residents are urged to prepare for possible flooding and strong winds,” the National Weather Service update stated.
The National Hurricane Center stated, “A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica [Tuesday] morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands [Tuesday] night, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday,” it said.
Hurricane shelters will open on Tuesday across all three islands.
Sister Islands shelters will be open from 6am:• Aston Rutty Centre, Cayman Brac• West End Primary School, Cayman Brac• Public Works Department Building, Little CaymanGrand Cayman shelters will open from 10am:• John Gray Memorial Church Hall, West Bay• Cayman Islands Red Cross, George Town• John Gray High School Gymnasium (pet friendly), George Town• East End Civic Centre• Breakers Civic Centre• Craddock Ebanks Civic Centre, North Side
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