In its initial preseason forecast for 2022, Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project has predicted an above-average hurricane season.
CSU called for 19 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which are expected to strengthen to major hurricane strengthen of Category 3, 4 or 5 in the forecast issued 7 April.
According to the 30-year climatological mean, which runs from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal,” reads the forecast in part. “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
The predictions come one week shy of two months before the official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Although officially running from 1 June to 30 Nov., the season has gotten off to an early start for the past seven consecutive years – with the first storm developing either in April or May.
Each year, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service forecasters adopt the predictions from CSU and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which will release its 2021 hurricane season projections in late May.
The storm names for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginia and Walter.
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