Despite a slow start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters have maintained their predictions of above-average storm activity for the remaining four months.
In an updated prediction issued on Thursday, 4 Aug., officials at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, Florida, reiterated their calls for between 14 and 20 named storms, of which six to 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, the NHC believes from three to five could develop into major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its initial predictions in May.
“So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin,” according to a press release issued by NOAA, of which the NHC is a division.
The statement continued, “An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”
On 5 June, Tropical Storm Alex formed, breaking seven consecutive years of storm formation outside the Atlantic hurricane season which runs from 1 June to 30 Nov. each year.
Since then, Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin formed on 1 July and 2 July, respectively. None of the systems posed any threats to the Cayman Islands.
As of 2pm today, 4 Aug., the NHC’s forecast called for “no new tropical cyclones” within the next five days.
September is considered the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, during which storm formation has historically shifted from the eastern Atlantic Ocean to the eastern and central Caribbean.
“There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity,” read NOAA’s statement.
With just more than four-and-a-half months to go, officials at NOAA say they are 60% confident in their forecasts.
When issuing its own season forecast each year, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service takes into consideration the predictions of NOAA and Southern Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
CSU’s initial predictions are in line with those of NOAA.
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