For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.
A combination of increasing cold fronts and an upper-level ridge is helping to suppress storm activity throughout the Caribbean section of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
“The season is not over, but we are seeing a dip in storm activity because of the cold fronts that are coming down into our area,” said Cayman Islands National Weather Service’s forecaster Avalon Porter. “There is also an upper-level ridge stretching across the Caribbean which is helping to suppress storm formation.”
With fewer than two weeks to go until the official end of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season US-based National Hurricane Center says it does not anticipate any storm development within the next five days.
This is not the first lull in storm activity this year – no storms developed in August for the first time in 30 years. Despite this, storm activity has met predictions for an above-average hurricane season.
In May, forecasters called for between 14 and 20 named storms, of which six to 10 were expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, the NHC expected three to five could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
As of Wednesday, 16 Nov., there have been 14 named tropical storms, with eight developing into hurricanes, and two of those – Ian and Fiona – becoming major Category 4 hurricanes.
Although the NHC does not anticipate any further developments in the next five days, Porter has warned that it is possible there could be more storms before the season’s official end on 30 Nov.
“It is still too early to say that the season has come to an end with storm development because an example of this is the recent storm Nicole,” Porter said. “Nicole formed from a subtropical system and initially was not expected to develop into a tropical storm; however, it became even stronger as it passed over the Bahamas and became a hurricane.”
This year, Cayman was impacted by Hurricane Ian, which developed into a Category 1 storm while passing to the south, strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in Florida, leaving billions of dollars of damage in its wake.
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