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Forecasters warn of ‘extremely active’ hurricane season

12 June 2024

For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.

Forecasters at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project are holding fast to their projection for an extremely active hurricane season, calling for as many as 23 named storms that surpass winds of 39 miles per hour or higher.

The CSU team, in an updated forecast on Tuesday, say information obtained through early June indicates that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity well above the 1991–2020 average.

A typical season during that time span had 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

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CSU’s Tuesday forecast, similar to the projections released in April, calls for at least 11 of the 23 named storms on the forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph. Five of those hurricanes are expected to strengthen to Category 3 or higher, becoming major storms with winds of at least 111 mph.

The forecasters say they anticipate La Niña conditions to develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, “likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear”, favouring storm activity.

Sea surface temperatures, averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, remain at record warm levels, “currently measuring ~1.4°C above the 1991–2020 average”.

“This warmth favors an active Atlantic hurricane season via dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are conducive for developing hurricanes,” forecasters said.

The forecast has “above-normal confidence” for an early June outlook based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favourable, large-scale environmental conditions.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” forecasters said.

As with all hurricane seasons, the CSU team reminded coastal residents that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.

“Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” they added.

Further seasonal updates for the Atlantic basin hurricane season will be issued on Tuesday, 9 July and Tuesday, 6 August.

CSU will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the climatological peak of the season from August-October.