Tropical Storm Rafael forms southeast of Grand Cayman

For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.

Tropical storm Rafael has formed about 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and is expected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday, the US National Hurricane Center has said.

The Cayman Islands, which remains under a hurricane warning, is expected to start experiencing hurricane conditions on Tuesday afternoon, the NHC said in its 4pm advisory on Monday.

A hurricane warning means that tropical-storm-force winds from Rafael are likely within the next 36 hours, ahead of possible hurricane conditions.

A message from Premier Juliana O’Connor-Connolly on Monday evening said, “The storm is expected to impact Little Cayman and Cayman Brac first, with hurricane-force winds likely. Please check on elderly neighbours, help those who may need assistance, and ensure you have essential supplies at home. If you’re uncertain about your home’s readiness, consider sheltering with loved ones or in a government shelter.”

The system is moving to the north at about 9 miles per hour, according to forecasters.

“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center,” the NHC said.

It said Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening.

Allan Ebanks, Cayman Islands National Weather Service Meteorologist, in a severe weather bulletin earlier this evening, indicated that tropical force winds with gusts up to hurricane force are expected on Tuesday across all 3 islands.

He said a small craft warning remains in effect for Monday and a marine warning is in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rafael is expected to make a northwestward motion beginning later Monday night, the NHC said, and forecast to continue for the next few days.

On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late Monday, pass near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Storm surge from Rafael could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, the NHC said.

The latest forecast track has the system moving between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman by midday Tuesday, 5 Nov.

Governor Jane Owen, in an audio message Monday night, said the Island can expect the main impact to be during the course of the day Tuesday and into the night.

“As Governor, I want to reassure all of you that the preservation of life, avoiding injuries and protecting property are the top priorities for our Government. We are grateful for the ongoing efforts and commitment of all our emergency services, including the National Weather Service, Hazard Management Cayman Islands, our Police, our Regiment and those responsible for our national infrastructure,” Owen said in her audio message.

She said residents still have some hours Monday evening, “which is a gift for preparation which we should all try to use wisely. Stay safe everyone and God bless.”

As of 7am Monday, a hurricane warning came into effect for the Cayman Islands based on the advice of the director general of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service and the director of Hazard Management Cayman Islands, a government statement said.

“Residents are urged to take immediate precautions to protect themselves and their properties, such as securing buildings, gathering emergency supplies, and seeking higher ground or shelter,” the statement said.

Schools will be closed on Tuesday, 5 Nov.

The Owen Roberts International Airport (ORIA) on Grand Cayman and the Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CKIA) on Cayman Brac will be closed on Tuesday, the Cayman Islands Airports Authority has said.

The Charles Kirkconnell International Airport will close at 8:30am, and Owen Roberts International Airport will close at 9:30am.

“It is anticipated that both Airports will reopen for normal operations at 12pm on Wednesday, 6 Nov,” the CIAA wrote.

Troy Leacock, president of Cayman Islands Tourism Association, has advised visitors to the island to keep an eye on flight statuses.

“Many properties offer a worry-free guarantee, hurricane-cancellation policy. For those already on island, we advise them to speak to the front desk or property manager about any planned evacuations or necessary preparations. For those choosing to stay on island, we urge them to stay inside during the storm until the ‘all clear’ is issued and stay informed by viewing the government updates,” he told the Cayman Compass Monday afternoon.

Passengers are advised to contact their airlines directly for any flight-related inquiries and updates, the CIAA has said.

Expected conditions

The Cayman Islands National Weather Service severe bulletin stated that Cayman can expect winds of approximately 13 – 17mph with higher gusts increasing on Tuesday.

On Tuesday Grand Cayman can expect 23 – 29 mph winds with gusts up to tropical storm force and for the Sister Islands, 60 – 70 mph with gusts up to hurricane force.

“Gradual decrease is expected from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning,” the bulletin said.

When it comes to rainfall the National Weather Service says up to 5 inches of rainfall is likely between Monday and Friday on Grand Cayman.

For the Sister Islands up to 9.5 inches of rainfall is likely between today and Friday.

A Flood Warning will be in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday for all 3 islands.

“Residents are advised that flooding is likely and poor visibility in periods of heavy showers.
Mariners should seek and remain in safe harbour until further notice. Residents along coastal regions should expect increased wave action and possible coastal and inland flooding,” the bulletin added.

Rough with wave heights of 5-7 feet can expected through Monday.

The bulletin said seas can become very rough with wave heights peaking at possibly 9-13 ft on Tuesday and later reducing to 6-8ft on Wednesday 6 Nov.

Sand distribution

Sandbags will be made available for residents of Cayman Brac from 8am-4pm Monday at Cotton Tree Bay and Watering Place Gardens.

In Grand Cayman, residents can get sand for sandbags at the Linford Pierson Highway, Agriculture Pavilion, West Bay Fire Station and Frank Sound Fire Station.

“The public is reminded to travel with their own sandbags where possible. Support for those who are not able to fill sandbags will be provided from 12pm to 2pm and then again from 4pm to 6pm,” the statement said.

Shelters to open

The Red Cross has confirmed that shelters will open from 10am on Tuesday.

Red Cross shelter managers and volunteers have been already been deployed.

The Red Cross headquarters at Huldah Avenue will be opened, as well as the John Gray Gym, shelters in East End, North Side, Breakers Community Hall and the John Gray Memorial Church Hall in West Bay.

The next severe weather bulletin will be issued at 7:30am 5 Nov., 2024.