Meteorologists are keeping an eye on a tropical wave located southeast of Jamaica that is tracking west over the Caribbean Sea.
At 11 am on Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center put the chance of formation of a tropical cyclone at 40% within the next 24 hours, and at 80% through the next 7 days. Environmental conditions are conducive for development.
Models show the area of low pressure moving slowly westward south of the Cayman Islands, where it is then expected to stall out and strengthen, close to the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, before a cold front is expected to pull it up to the north and northwest, potentially as a strengthening hurricane starting at the beginning of next week.
The latest GFS Model run by NOAA currently shows the system tracking a couple of hundred miles west of the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday (19-20 November) before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
While the long range NOAA model does not currently show the cyclone passing particularly close to the Cayman Islands, it should be noted that the accuracy of the NOAA GFS model has been excellent within the one-to-five-day range, but the accuracy drops significantly after day five.
Residents in the Cayman Islands are encouraged to monitor the progress of this potential cyclone. The latest Cayman Islands National Weather Service forecast is showing that we can expect an increase in rain and gusty winds starting Thursday.
The forecast for Thursday includes an advisory stating that small craft should exercise caution over open seas. By Sunday, the National Weather Services increases the alert, stating that seas will become rough and a marine warning will be in effect.
Additional updates will follow.
For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.
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