As the 2024 hurricane season enters its final stretch, the Cayman Islands can expect some rainfall and rough seas starting over the weekend and into early next week.
Forecasters were also keeping watch over a low-pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean, which initial reports suggested could develop but, on Wednesday, had showed signs of dissipating.
Both National Weather Service meteorologist Kerrie Forbes and Colorado State University research scientist Levi Silvers said the season, which officially ends on Saturday, looks likely to close without storm activity.
Forbes told the Cayman Compass via email that currently, “the National Hurricane Center is showing no tropical cyclone development expected for the next 7 days”.
Silvers, in his assessment, said he did not anticipate another tropical storm forming in the next week.
“It isn’t impossible but it looks quite unlikely. So it is worth paying attention to the local weather forecasts over the next couple of days, but beyond that, I don’t see cause for concern right now,” he said via email.
Weekend rain expected
This weekend Forbes said a cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean and “over the Cayman Islands by late Sunday evening with some isolated showers”.
“Thereafter, fresh northeasterly winds with moderate to rough seas are likely for the area,” she added.
The National Weather Service’s weekly forecast is projecting isolated showers Saturday and Sunday with seas “slight to moderate with a wave height of 2 to 4 feet”.
Winds are expected to be northeast at 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.
Starting Monday, according to the forecast, small craft operators are advised to exercise caution over open waters as waves heights are expected to increase to 5 to 7 feet and winds are projected to be northeast at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts.
Season was ‘extremely active’
The Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team at Colorado State University, on Tuesday, released its hurricane season verification report, stating that though its projection of 23 named storms did not materialise, “the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ended up as extremely active”.
A total of 18 named storms formed in 2024, “which was somewhat less than the 23 named storms predicted in April, June and August and well below the 25 named storms predicted in July. The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes,” the report stated.
It also pointed out that five hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States in 2024, with Helene and Milton making landfall as major hurricanes.
“The continental US hurricane landfalls of 2024 (Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton) combined to cause ~250 fatalities with preliminary damage estimates of ~$100 billion USD,” it added.
Silvers said, looking back, there were a lot of surprises this season, “in particular the extreme mid-season lull of activity during the normal peak of the season. The burst of activity afterward, in late September, October, and early November was also unique. Every season is different.”
This season Cayman felt the impacts of hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Rafael, which passed directly over the Sister Islands.
Phil Klotzbach, lead CSU forecaster, in a statement, said, that the “seasonal forecasts anticipated an extremely active season, although our forecasts slightly over predicted activity that occurred.
“The forecasts for hurricanes and major hurricanes were quite accurate, while we somewhat over predicted the amount of named storm activity as well as Accumulated Cyclone Energy that occurred.”
Colorado State University’s initial season forecast in April and first update in June, the statement said, were the “most accurate” of the 2024 predictions.
“Both of these forecasts exactly predicted the observed number of hurricanes (11) and major hurricanes (5) that occurred. Eighteen named storms formed in 2024, which was somewhat less than the 23 named storms predicted in April, June and August and well below the 25 named storms predicted in July,” it said in a statement.
Related Videos
