Colorado State University’s 2025 hurricane season forecast is calling for above-average tropical cyclone activity.
In its outlook, issued 3 April, CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project, one of the leading authorities on Atlantic hurricane forecasting, said its meteorologists and research scientists also anticipate “an above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean”.
“All of our model guidance is pointing towards an above-normal season,” they said.
Citing above-average sea-surface temperatures, the Colorado State University forecast for 2025 predicts 17 named storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes. They believe four of these hurricanes will reach major hurricane status of Category 3 or above.
Long-term averages show a typical season results in 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 ‘major’ hurricanes. While the CSU forecast suggests 2025 will bring “above-normal activity”, the forecast is still below their seasonal prediction for last year, which called for 17 to 25 named storms.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU also suggests that around the peak time for hurricane season activity in mid September, a transition to La Niña conditions is likely to occur.
The scientists acknowledge a degree of uncertainty in the transition to La Niña conditions and its possible intensity, but when, and if it does occur, there is typically less high-level vertical wind shear, which tends to suppress hurricane development and activity in the Atlantic.
The report states that warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean “correlates well with what is typically seen in April before active Atlantic hurricane seasons”.
CSU will issue updates to their 2025 hurricane forecast on 11 June, 9 July and 6 August.
This is the 42nd year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
These seasonal forecasts were developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who pioneered seasonal Atlantic hurricane prediction and was the lead author on the forecasts until his death in 2016.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration will provide their hurricane season forecast in late May, just prior to the start of hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November.
The list of names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season include:
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
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Their own figures show a long term average of 24.8 storms so their prediction for this year of 25 storms seems to be only a marginal overall increase.