Cayman’s grocery bills keep rising, even as inflation slows

If it feels like food prices are rising faster than almost everything else, that’s because they are.

Even though price increases across the economy have slowed, food bills in Cayman are still rising much faster than most other costs. Between June and September this year, overall inflation was just 0.4%, meaning prices in general barely moved. But during that same period, the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 2.7%, a much sharper jump that families feel immediately at the checkout.

For households, this means that even when inflation appears to be under control, grocery bills continue to climb, putting ongoing pressure on monthly budgets.

On an annual basis, the divergence is even more pronounced. While year-on-year inflation in September 2025 was measured at just 0.1%, food prices were 4.5% higher than a year earlier, making food one of the greatest contributors to cost-of-living pressure.

Increase driven by necessities

Year-on-year data shows that the increase is being driven by necessities rather than luxury items. Oils and fats rose 8.4%, sugar and snack products climbed 8.5%, meat prices were up almost 5%, and fruits increased by 4.5%. Vegetables were one of the few categories to edge slightly lower over the year, declining by less than 1%.

Shorter-term figures paint a similar picture. Between June and September, fruit prices jumped more than 12%, while vegetables rose just over 5%. Meat and meat products increased by 4.7%, sugar and confectionery by 4.8%, and bread and cereals by 1.6%. Only milk, cheese and eggs, along with oils and fats, recorded modest quarterly declines.

Short-term price jumps sit on top of a much bigger, longer-term shift. Government data shows that between 2015 and 2023, the cost of food in Cayman rose by almost 90%. In 2023 alone, households spent more than $300 million on groceries and non-alcoholic drinks – nearly double what they spent eight years earlier.

Restaurant spending soars

At the same time, spending on eating out has exploded. Cayman residents spent about $230 million at restaurants and cafés last year, again almost double the 2015 figure. App-based delivery services such as Let’s Eat and Bento have made prepared food easier to access, especially for busy households, but they have also blurred the line between convenience and necessity – often at a higher cost.

Food, alongside housing and utilities, is one of the few expenses families cannot avoid or easily cut back on. The burden falls hardest on those with the least room to manoeuvre. Lower-income households spend about 17% of their total budget on food. For higher-income households, food makes up less than 7% of spending.

International comparisons underline how exposed Cayman households are. According to Expatistan, a crowdsourced cost-of-living comparison platform, food prices in the Cayman Islands are around 37% higher than in the United States’ average, 70% higher than in the United Kingdom and 62% higher than in Jamaica. On average, Cayman’s food costs are comparable to those in New York City.

High cost of healthy eating

Those differences become even more pronounced when looking specifically at the cost of eating healthily. A recent analysis by Cayman-based dietitian Taryn Stein, published earlier this year, compared the cost of meeting World Health Organization daily energy guidelines through a balanced, home-cooked diet.

Using a target intake of roughly 2,200 calories per day, Stein estimated that eating healthily would cost about $242.68 per person per week – more than $12,500 per year, or close to $50,000 annually for a family of four.

By contrast, Stein found that relying on fast-food meals was cheaper. Three meals a day for a week cost around $220.50, though they delivered roughly 30% more calories than recommended. Cutting that back to two meals a day to meet energy needs reduced annual food costs to about $8,000 per person, saving roughly $4,500 a year compared with healthy home cooking.

For families trying to make ends meet, those numbers matter. Wanting to eat well does not always align with what is affordable, especially when every fruit and vegetable carries a 17% duty.

Global impact

Global forces are making matters worse. Across the Caribbean and beyond, extreme weather, climate disruption, conflict and trade shocks continue to push up food prices. The World Bank reports that food inflation remains above 5% in more than half of low- and middle-income countries, and in nearly two-thirds of countries food prices are rising faster than inflation overall.

Cayman’s heavy reliance on imports magnifies those pressures. More than 90% of food is imported, and about 80% comes directly from, or passes through, the United States. Over the past decade, food imports from the US have grown rapidly, reaching nearly US$137 million in 2024 alone. That dependence means any change in US trade policy quickly shows up on local shelves.

Rising tariffs are a major example. Analysts say higher US tariffs are lifting prices there and feeding through into Cayman’s import costs, not just for food but for a wide range of everyday goods. Local businesses report higher prices, shipping delays and added costs from rerouting supplies.

All of this helps explain the disconnect many households feel. Inflation may be cooling, but food prices remain stubbornly high. For most families, the grocery bill is the cost that defines the cost of living – and for now, it shows little sign of easing.