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Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center on Thursday noted potential tropical depression development in the coming days in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The area of disturbance is still in the early stages of development, so its potential path is unclear.
The NHC, in its Thursday afternoon advisory, said the broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development is possible.
“A tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week,” it said.
Cayman Islands National Weather Service Meteorologist Allan Ebanks, in his afternoon forecast on Thursday, said the NHC marked the area over the northwest Caribbean with a 40% chance of cyclone formation over the next 7 days.
“The Cayman Islands National Weather Service will continue to monitor the development of this system,” he said.
Earlier this week, forecasters at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project said global models have detected “a robust signal for a tropical cyclone emerging from the western Caribbean in 8–12 days”.
They suggested that “this system could be strong and consequently generate moderate Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), although ACE generation could be somewhat tempered due to a relatively short lifetime”.
Forecasters say regardless of how much ACE the system generates, “any development in the western Caribbean should be closely monitored for potential landfall impacts”.
Two other areas of disturbance are also being monitored on the radar; however, the NHC has given these systems low chances of formation.
The first of the two is the remnants of Gordon, located in the central subtropical Atlantic.
The second is an area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda and is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms.
The remnants of Gordon are also producing showers and thunderstorms and could possibly re-develop as they move northward or north-northeastward over the next few days.
It has a 30% chance of formation over the next seven days.
The NHC said environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for the area of disturbance southeast of Bermuda. It said, however, “some development of this system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week”.
It had a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days.
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