New weather system could threaten Cayman

A broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean, which has been designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, is expected to head in the general direction of the Cayman Islands.

Although not all of the computer models forecast significant development of the storm, some show it strengthening to Hurricane Paula before it passes the Cayman Islands as early as Tuesday morning.

As of Saturday morning, the storm system was located about 12.7N, 79.9, or about 450 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman.  It is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward.

The National Hurricane Center only gave the system a 20 per cent of developing before Monday morning, The computer models that do forecast development of Invest 98L show that development happening during the day on Monday.

The system’s general location and potential track are reminiscent of Hurricane Paloma in 2008, which causes extensive damage in Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

1 COMMENT

  1. Update from National Hurricane Center in Miami:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON…AND WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
    NICARAGUA…HONDURAS…BELIZE…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
    NNNN