C4C poll figures debated

Polling data released last week by the independent political group Coalition for Cayman showed slightly less than 50 per cent of likely Cayman Islands voters said they would be “more likely” to support independent candidates than those from the two established political parties in the upcoming general election.  

Independents endorsed by the Coalition for Cayman were supported by 49 per cent of the respondents, People’s Progressive Movement candidates were supported by 33 per cent of the respondents and the United Democratic Party candidates were supported by 18 per cent of the respondents.  

“The Coalition for Cayman commissioned a telephone survey to determine the attitudes and political preferences of voters throughout the Cayman Islands,” said Randy Merren, co-chairman of the coalition. “The survey was conducted 25 February to 2 March by Cherry Communications, a respected political survey and market research operation in Tallahassee, Florida.  

“All answer categories were rotated in order to assure objective results,” Mr. Merren said. “Final survey results are based on 242 completed surveys in a random sample pulled from a random pool of registered voters in the Cayman Islands. The age breakdown of Cayman Islands voters is as follows: 19 per cent – 18-29 years; 16 per cent – 30-39 years; 32 per cent – 40-49 years; 20 per cent – 50-59 years, 7 per cent – 60-69 years; 6 per cent – 70 years and older. 

“Based on a question specific to preferred candidates, when voters were asked if they would be more likely to support candidates from the United Democratic Party, People’s Progressive Movement, or independent candidates endorsed by Coalition for Cayman, the results were [as described above].” 

The exact question asked in the poll was: “In the upcoming elections which of the following candidates groups would you be more likely to support: UDP, PPM, independent candidates endorsed by Coalition for Cayman?”  

The release of polling data by political groups in the Cayman Islands is typically rare, though there are local companies that do both product and political polling. 

Political party leadership was quick to challenge the Coalition for Cayman as just another political party. 

UDP leader and West Bay legislator McKeeva Bush said: “I won seven elections. Some kind of poll [was] carried out in each one showing me personally losing. I won each time and won with big majorities. Although I’ve looked and listened to what these supposedly ‘correct polls’ say, I’ve never paid attention to polls as conducted in these islands to say that I have confidence in them.  

“I was elected, and always worked hard to try and make Cayman a better place for all to live and work in. This election is serious with all kind of predictions being made and much talk about who is better than who. I pray and I work and trust the good commonsense of the people. That’s what I’ve always done. The party I lead now will do the same. 

“And so, polls or no polls, it’s not over until it’s over!”  

“The recent so called research released by C4C demonstrates that they are hypocritical and grasping at straws,” said PPM chief and opposition party leader Alden McLaughlin.  

“With 18 seats in the Legislative Assembly, a government can only be formed by a group or team comprising at least 10 members. To date [the Coalition for Cayman] has only supported seven candidates, five in George Town and two in West Bay.  

“How then does C4C explain how they will form a government with so few candidates running for office? The Progressives has a team of 14 candidates in 4 districts who are well-versed in what matters to Caymanians, residents and investors. We have seen the failures of the last four years and will work to bring good jobs back to Cayman; build our economy, root out corruption, restore confidence in government and make us all proud of the country we live in.  

“If C4C is truthfully supporting ‘independent candidates’, let the candidates speak for themselves or else stop trying to fool Caymanians that they are not a party. They can’t have it both ways.” 

Other polls  

Mr. McLaughlin’s emphasis on “candidates” versus “parties” was shown up in some polling done last year by the Caymanian Compass.  

Recent nonscientific polling done on the www.cayCompass.com website has confirmed local residents’ general distaste for party politics.  

In one poll conducted last year, more than 80 per cent of 500 respondents said political parties were either “bad or terrible” for the Cayman Islands.  

Another poll conducted in 2012, that measured essentially the same question the C4C was trying to determine, came up with similar results.  

In that nonscientific online poll that measured the views of 695 total respondents, 121 of them – 17.4 per cent – said they couldn’t vote. Of the remaining 574 respondents, 271 of them – 47.2 per cent of those who could potentially vote – said they would be inclined to vote for independent candidates.  

Another 108 people – 18.8 per cent of the total excluding those who said they couldn’t vote – said they would be inclined to vote for PPM candidates, while 84 people – 14.6 per cent of the same total – said they would be inclined to vote for UDP candidates.  

However, when the question of specific candidates arose, polling results showed something quite different.  

Another nonscientific poll done in 2012 asked readers who they thought would be premier after the May 2013 general election.  

Of the 739 people who responded to the online poll, 235 – or 31.8 per cent – said West Bay MLA McKeeva Bush would likely be Cayman’s next premier, with Mr. McLaughlin coming a close second with 198 votes, or 26.8 per cent.  

Independent North Side MLA Ezzard Miller came in fourth position, with 75 votes, or 10.2 per cent, behind the “Who cares?” option, which 162 people, or 21.9 per cent, chose.  

A small number of respondents who opted for “other” candidates for premier put forward other potential candidates, including politicians Rolston Anglin, Cline Glidden, Captain Eugene Ebanks and Mike Adam from the UDP and Moses Kirkconnell and Arden McLean from the PPM. 

For more on the upcoming election, please click here.