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Two of three systems now churning in the Atlantic basin are expected to become tropical depressions by the end of the week, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.
At this time, none of the systems pose threats to the Cayman Islands.
However, Cayman Islands National Weather Service forecaster Kerrie Forbes, in an emailed response to Cayman Compass queries on the systems Tuesday afternoon, said one of the systems — an area of low pressure expected to form over the southwest Caribbean — could affect local weather.
This system, she said, is forecast “to have a high probability of developing into a Tropical Depression later this week as it moves northwest along the coast of Central America producing fresh winds and thunderstorms over the Cayman area with an accumulation of 1-2 inches of rainfall from Friday through Saturday.”
The NWS, she said, will continue to monitor the development of these systems.
The NHC, in its Tuesday morning advisory, said two systems – a broad trough of low pressure about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and the aforementioned broad area of low pressure expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea — are likely to develop further.
The third system, located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is projected to develop somewhat over the next couple of days, but upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend, forecasters said Tuesday.
The first area of disturbance near the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said.
“Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two while
it moves northwestward at about 15 miles per hour over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic,” the NHC said.
Its formation chance through 48 hours remains at 20%, and through five days stands at 60%.
The NHC said environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the second broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and a tropical depression “could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday”.
This system is unlikely to form in the next 48 hours, but the NHC has given it a 60% chance of formation through five days.
Meanwhile the tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.
“Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 miles per hour over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend,” the NHC advisory has said.
The formation chance through 48 hours remains low at 20% and 30% through five days.
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