Cayman population could be as high as 72,000

The preliminary report of the 2021 census shows a total population of 69,656 for the Cayman Islands. This is 26% more than when the official count took place the last time in 2010.

But Cayman’s actual population is likely higher by some margin, the report acknowledged.

Of the 29,502 households identified by the census – up from 22,760 in 2010 – 958 households either declined or were unable to participate in the population count.

“Approximately 549 households refused to participate in the 2021 population and housing Census; another 409 households were verified as occupied, but the occupants could not be located for an interview,” the preliminary report said. Based on the average household size of 2.4 people, “the population can plausibly be higher by approximately 2,300 persons,” it added.

This would amount to almost 72,000 people.

The census survey was conducted from 10 Oct. to 31 Dec. 2021, with an additional three weeks in January 2022.

Deputy Premier Chris Saunders noted in a press release the importance of census data, for instance during government’s COVID-19 vaccination drive last year.

“Having accurate population data is vital in public health situations. I’m incredibly glad that we took a cautious approach and asked for a re-estimate of the population prior to determining our COVID-19 vaccination targets,” he said. “It was important that we got it right to ensure our population was sufficiently protected prior to re-opening our borders, and to meet the targets set by other nations when allowing Caymanians and residents into their countries.”

He said if the 3.2% of households that did not participate in the survey are factored in, the actual population may have been slightly higher than government’s conservative estimate.

Bodden Town grows fastest

Compared to the 2010 population, Bodden Town recorded the highest growth rate at 35.3%. Other districts recorded double-digit population growth except for the Sister Islands, which saw a population decline.

“We all knew that the populations in the Eastern districts – primarily in the Savannah, Newlands and Bodden Town areas, had grown exponentially merely by observation, but to have this proven by the Census data is very important,” Saunders said. “Having this data is vital as we look at how the Government must plan and budget for the sufficient provision of public services such as schools, health clinics and policing, as well as infrastructure such as roads and hurricane shelters.”

About half of the population lives in George Town (49.6%), followed by West Bay (21.5%), Bodden Town (20.6%), the Sister Islands (3.1%), North Side (2.7%) and East End (2.5%).

While population growth can significantly reduce the availability of affordable housing, the census recorded 3,865 vacant dwellings and 2,192 residential units under construction.

The number of temporary second homes and temporary short-term rentals was 2,288.

Labour force is recovering

Caymanians make up 52.9% of the population and about 44.9% of the labour force, according to the preliminary 2021 census report.

Following the population shift during the COVID lockdown in 2020, when an estimated 6,000 foreign workers left the island, Cayman’s labour force is returning to pre-pandemic levels, the census data shows.

The 2021 labour force of 47,311 is larger by about about 3,500 workers than in 2020 and also exceeds 2018 figures (46,178) but it still trails the record set in 2019 of 49,089.

The overall unemployment rate at the time of the census was 5.7%, or 2,676 people.

Of these, 1,795 Caymanians were counted as unemployed, resulting in a Caymanian unemployment rate of 8.5%.

The absolute number of unemployed may well be slightly higher given that figures for the uncounted households are still being collected.

The final 2021 census numbers are expected in June.