For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.
With forecasters monitoring multiple storm systems, of varying strengths, in the Atlantic hurricane basin, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service is warning residents to stay alert ahead of expected rough weather next week.
As of today, 21 Sept., there were five systems brewing in the Atlantic Ocean, two more than yesterday. None of these systems poses any immediate threat to the Cayman Islands.
However, forecasters warn that come Monday, 26 Sept., things are expected to change with one of those systems.
The system in question is a “very strong tropical wave”, which is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Hermine, the eighth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
“There is some time between the system’s arrival and its development, and so there is a margin of error even with the models,” NWS forecaster Avalon Porter told the Cayman Compass.
In its mid-day forecast, the US-based National Hurricane Center advised the tropical wave had a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Those chances are said to increase to 90% in the next five days.
“The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week,” said the NHC.
Porter added, “Right now it is a very strong tropical wave, but by Friday we expect that to change as it strengthens into a tropical storm upon its approach of Jamaica.”
The NHC has not yet issued projected storm charts for the tropical wave; however, Porter said the initial models suggest the storm is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves past the Cayman Islands.
“The models suggest that the centre of the storm will pass Cayman by some 150 miles east as it veers in a northwestward direction towards Cuba, and on towards the Florida panhandle,” he said.
Porter told the Compass when the storm does pass by the Cayman area, people can expect winds from 15 to 20 knots on Monday, which could strengthen to up to 60 knots overnight going into Tuesday morning.
“Along with strong winds, we expect rough seas and thundershowers across the islands,” he said.
Prior to the 1 June start of hurricane season, which runs through 30 Nov., the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration acquired two new supercomputers, which are said to have doubled its current storm prediction, detection, and projection capabilities. But even with this advancement, there is room for error.
“There are more than five days out before the storm arrives in the Cayman area, and until then even the best models are subject to margins of error,” said Porter. “What is important is that people remain vigilant, and not panic, because if the storm does come, there will be ample warning in advance.”
Hazard Management Cayman Islands, on its social media platform, echoed that advice. “Whilst it is still uncertain the exact track or intensity that Invest 98L could develop into, it is important to be aware that we are now in the more active half of the hurricane season,” it said.
For tips from HMCI on how to prepare for the hurricane season, click here.
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