Airlift growing as Cayman heads for most successful winter stayover season

Tourism chiefs say the final quarter of 2022 is gearing up to be more successful in terms of stayover visitors than the same period in 2019, which was the busiest winter season in Cayman’s history.

Part of that anticipated success is a continuing increase in airlift, as airlines resume routes they had been running prior to the pandemic, and add new ones, Director of Tourism Rosa Harris told members of the Cayman Islands Tourism Association at their annual general meeting last week.

New routes coming online include a direct Cayman Airway’s flight to and from Los Angeles, launching next month, and Sun Country Airlines starting a Minneapolis-Cayman route in December, Harris said.

These optimistic projections come despite an anticipated 4% drop in airline seat capacity from US carriers in the final months of this year, and a potential 18% decrease in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 2019 figures, Harris said.

This is prompted by American Airline’s reduction in services from Dallas and Miami, and a similar reduction in service by Southwest and JetBlue from Fort Lauderdale, and by Delta from Atlanta, she said.

Hotel occupancy and rates increasing

Outgoing CITA president Marc Langevin, who is also general manager of The Ritz-Carlton, noted at the meeting that the announcement of the lifting of the final COVID restrictions in August this year came in just enough time for holidaymakers to book their winter vacations in Cayman.

“Since the good news came at the right time, we are finally back on pace,” he said. “Actually, most of us in the three big hotels – and I’m pretty sure it’s in all other accommodation sectors – we are to a level of confidence where we believe Q4 2022 will be a better quarter than 2019. That’s amazing news.”

The fourth quarter of 2019 was a record one for stayover visitors in the Cayman Islands, with 116,449 air arrivals. The entire year was a record-breaking one, with more than half a million stayover tourists arriving.

The Ministry of Tourism had set a target for 2022 of getting 40% of the 2019 numbers – about 200,000 arrivals – a figure it expects to far surpass by the end of this year.

Even if occupancy rates drop following the winter season, Langevin said, revenue is likely to continue to grow as visitors are more willing to pay a premium for their long-delayed vacations, noting that room rates among the major hotels are 15-20% higher than in 2019.

1% more airline seats compared to 2019

Tourism Minister Kenneth Bryan told CITA members, reiterating statistics he quoted at earlier briefings, that during the last three months of this year, there will be 1,253 more airline seats coming into Cayman – a 1% increase in capacity this year compared to the last quarter of 2019.

“The projections indicate that growth will continue in 2023 and capacity into the Cayman Islands will surpass 2019 numbers,” he said.

Tourism director Harris, who gave industry members an airline-by-airline breakdown of what Cayman can expect from carriers over the coming months, noted that all US gateways with service to Cayman in 2019 have resumed or are about to resume in some capacity, except for Cayman Airways’ Chicago route, Southwest’s Houston route, and Delta’s Detroit and Minneapolis-St. Paul route.

Sun Country Airlines has confirmed that it will run a Minneapolis/St. Paul-Grand Cayman route on Saturdays from 17 Dec. this year. And Delta’s Minneapolis route is expected to resume in winter 2023, Harris said.

Another boost to arrival numbers will be Cayman Airways return flight to Los Angeles, which launches on 5 Nov.

Bryan said the advent of this route will eventually lead to more visitors from Australia and Asia “who have never had a convenient way of getting here before”, as well as visitors from across the western United States.

“Consequently, we are expecting this route to be a key contributor to the increase in air arrivals projected for 2023,” he added.

American Airline routes

American Airlines has indicated that routes must be back to pre-pandemic load and revenue factors before it will consider resuming its JFK and Boston routes to Cayman, and that flights to Chicago’s O’Hare Airport are not likely to resume in the foreseeable future, Harris said told CITA members.

She added that AA’s Miami to Cayman Brac regional jet service will not likely be considered until 2024, as pilot shortages warrant available planes be assigned to proven routes.

American Airlines’ pre-pandemic Miami to Grand Cayman late-night flight, which returned early next morning, is not likely to resume anytime soon, she said. “That is a more expensive proposition, and the overnights will be the last to come back when equipment and pilot issue is resolved,” she explained.

During the pandemic, with their planes effectively grounded, airlines across the US retired thousands of its pilots and crews, and halted new hires and training. As a result, airlines, including AA, are still struggling to find enough pilots to operate their planes.

Harris said American Airlines had indicated “they have 100 regional jets parked with no pilots to fly them”.

Canada flights

Further north, the projections from Canada are more positive.

Harris said the number of airlines seats from Canada in October, November and December will be 11% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Currently, WestJet and Air Canada offer direct flights between Toronto and Grand Cayman.

BA to fly via Nassau 5 times a week

British Airways flights from the UK, via the Bahamas, are expected to be at 91% of 2019’s levels in the final quarter of this year, and at 97% in the first quarter of 2023.

“The UK has always been strongly performing,” Harris said. “And that’s probably because we had continued service on BA throughout lockdown, so the awareness in the UK was a lot more consistent despite the borders being closed.”

British Airways, which flew weekly repatriation flights into and out of Cayman during the pandemic, currently flies four times a week to Cayman via Nassau, and plans to launch its a fifth weekly flight, on Wednesdays, from March next year. This means flights will depart from London on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays.

More seats mean more accommodation demand

To help spread the message that Cayman is open and ready to welcome stayover visitors, Ministry of Tourism representatives, including Bryan, have been travelling to international conferences and expos in recent months to meet with cruise and airline officials, and other representatives of the tourism industry across the region.

Among the airlines he and members of his team have had discussions with are Virgin, LATAM, Norse Atlantic, Eurowings and Copa, which historically have not flown into Cayman.

Bryan told CITA members, “As we are all aware, higher yields is good news for the entire accommodations sector, including hoteliers, villas, apartments and condos. It is also beneficial for attractions, watersports operations, restaurants, taxis and many, many more who work in this side of the industry.

“We hope that the combination of pent-up demand and high visitation projections will mean that visitors will be willing to pay a premium to build memories again after the two-year hiatus due to COVID-19.”