Air passengers travelling through the Cayman Islands to another destination and not spending the night here are not included in the Department of Tourism’s tourism statistics, the DoT has clarified.
And of those visitors passing through to another destination but spending a night or more here (and thus considered as legitimate visitors), the vast majority cited local accommodations they were staying at, according to the DoT.
Monthly and yearly tourism statistics are posted at www.caymanislands.ky/statistics.
In an article in the Observer on Sunday earlier this year Leader of the Opposition McKeeva Bush said he understood that the numbers of in-transit passengers could be between 8-10 per cent, which would mean that in the first five months of this year, up to 15,000 in-transit passengers were being counted as tourists.
But following discussions between the DoT and Immigration Department on the issue and analysis done on in-transit figures the situation has now been clarified.
Acting Director of Tourism Shomari Scott, explained that according to Caribbean Tourism Organisation definitions, a ‘direct in-transit’ is someone who has another country as their final destination and does not spend the night.
‘These persons are not classified as visitors and therefore are not included in the data provided to DoT,’ he said.
While all arrivals data is collected at the port of entry by the Immigration Department, only a subset of this data relating to those that Immigration has deemed as visitors, is shared with the DoT for statistical purposes.
Mr. Scott noted that an indirect in-transit, according to CTO definition, is someone who has another country as the final intended destination, but who spends the night consuming some local resources and should therefore be counted toward the overall visitor numbers.
The DoT has been disclosing on its website the actual number of people who have cited in-transit as their purpose of visit.
‘When these numbers were further scrutinised for the period of January through June 2008, the vast majority who stated the purpose of visit as being in-transit also indicated they were staying in accommodations making them indirect in-transits or persons who misinterpreted this question,’ said Mr. Scott.
‘For example, a person travelling through Grand Cayman to the Sister Islands may interpret their stop in Grand Cayman as being in-transit when in fact they are remaining within the Cayman Islands, albeit in Little Cayman or Cayman Brac. This scenario represents an error of interpretation by the visitor when completing the Immigration card.’
According to DoT, the percentage of those who listed their purpose of visit as being ‘in-transit’ and who did not specify a local accommodation or in most cases who did not respond to this question at all, represented only 0.02 percent of the total visitor arrivals January – June 2008.
He noted that some information stated on the website may have created uncertainty and apologised for that.
The uncertainty came from DoT posting a potential error fraction, which was based on the total number of in-transit passengers counted in the DoT arrival statistics.
‘If anything, the DoT’s website points to perhaps too much of a conservative approach as further review of the in-transit category of data suggests that the actual questionable in-transit numbers are far fewer than the potential ones listed in full disclosure on its website,’ said Mr. Scott.
The DoT does not believe that the potential for error is as great as it may appear for numerous reasons. The analysis run by DoT for January – June 2008 on the subgroup of people who indicated their purpose of travel as in-transit, shows that, of the 178,321 total visitors to the Islands, some 2,959 had stated their purpose as being in-transit.
Of the 2,959 visitors who stated their purpose as being in-transit, 2,916 cited local accommodations on their Embarkation-Disembarkation cards and were therefore legitimate visitors.
‘Only 43 cards had unknown or unspecified accommodations resulting in an actual concern of 0.02 percent of the total 178,321 persons that had travelled up to that point,’ said Mr. Scott.
It had been suggested in the past that in-transit passengers going to Cuba may be skewing DoT’s reports of growth in air arrivals.
‘However, this allegation does not fit with the facts,’ said Mr. Scott.
‘Such passengers come out of Miami, Florida, which is located in the Southeast, USA. That region is our slowest growing region, posting during the period of January-June 2008, a net increase of only two per cent or 751 visitors.
‘Further, this growth from the Southeast region is comprised of an aggregate of seven states, which contribute to the net increase of visitors, year to date. In Florida alone, over the period in question there were flights operating on either a continual or seasonal basis to three or four different Florida cities.
‘Over the period in question, American Airlines matched and at times exceeded CAL frequencies to Miami. With so many cities, states and airlines contributing to the very modest growth of two per cent from the Southeast (January – June 2008), you cannot justify calling into question the overall growth in real visitors to the Cayman Islands based upon Cuban in-transit passengers out of Miami.’
From January to September 2008, the Cayman Islands total air arrivals have grown by 8.8 per cent, with a total number of 240,288 visitors.
‘This growth has been driven largely by increases from the Northeast and Southwest USA but also from double digit growth from Canada and the Europe,’ said Mr. Scott.
The DoT asserts that continued confidence of the private sector further demonstrates that real growth has occurred as they have reported corresponding growth in their businesses during this time.
President of the Cayman Islands Tourism Association Stephen Broadbelt told the Caymanian Compass recently that occupancy levels in hotels and condos seemed to be in line with the reported air arrivals.
He added that there is also quite a big market of friends and family who visit as tourists and stay in their loved ones homes on island.
From January through to September this year tourist air arrivals grew by 8.8 per cent.
Occupancy in hotels in that period has grown an average of 1.4 per cent over last year while occupancy in condos has grown by 4.5 per cent over last year. But there has also been one per cent more room stock this year than last year.
Mr. Broadbelt said, ‘Historical air arrival data is used to plan seasonal promotions, but the true value of this data set is only realised when paired with other critical data such as length of stay and demographics of visitor. The bottom line is not how many, but how much do they spend and will they have the kind of experience that will make them want to come back.’
He added that expanding the information required to be filled out on an embarkation/disembarkation card could benefit the tourism industry by supplying more detailed information about the air arrival passengers.
The DoT statement continued, ‘The DoT, Ministry of Tourism and private sector agree that there are more pressing issues ahead in the midst of a global economic crisis, than unfounded allegations that the DoT is purposely attempting to mislead the public.’
‘Following discussions with the DoT, Immigration has confirmed it will continue to review and enhance its processes for collecting data at the point of entry so that we achieve the highest degree of confidence in our data as is humanly possible.
‘DoT continues to be appreciative to Immigration for the difficult job they perform and their continued commitment to working with the tourism sector in sharing a portion of their data.’
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