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Updated – 4 Oct., 2pm: The circulation of a tropical disturbance less than 100 miles south-southeast of eastern Jamaica is gradually becoming better defined, US National Hurricane Center forecasters said Sunday afternoon.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” the NHC said in its latest advisory.
It said environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of the tropical wave, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
“The disturbance is forecast to move near Jamaica through Monday, and then pass near the Cayman Islands early Tuesday and approach western Cuba by late Tuesday, and interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said.
The low pressure system is forecast to move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Forecasters say while the circulation is becoming better defined, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organisation since this morning.
The NHC has given the wave an 80% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of formation over the next five days.
Updated – 4 Oct., 9am: Forecasters have said a tropical wave located southeast of Jamaica is likely to form into a tropical depression within the next day or two.
The US National Hurricane Center, in its latest advisory on Sunday, said locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days.
It has advised interests on these islands to monitor the progress of this disturbance which is located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of Jamaica.
The NHC said the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical storm is beginning to show some signs of organisation.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two. The system should move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today through Tuesday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday night and Wednesday,” the NHC said.
Forecasters have given the system a 70% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of formation over the next five days.
The tropical wave is one of four active weather systems being monitored that include Tropical Storm Gamma and two other disturbances.
Cayman’s National Weather Service, in its Sunday forecast, said, cloudiness and showers over the Cayman area associated with Gamma will gradually decrease from Sunday night as the storm continues to move slowly over the Yucatan Peninsula and then the southeast Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning.
Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the northwest.
Gamma is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and far western Cuba, the NHC said.
“This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America,” it added in its advisory on the storm.
Updated – 3 Oct., 4pm: The US National Hurricane Center has said heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across parts of Cayman, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba over the next few days as shower and thunderstorm activity became more consolidated near a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea.
In addition, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, in its 4pm forecast, said cloudiness and showers over the Cayman area associated with Tropical Storm Gamma will gradually decrease from tonight as Gamma continues to slowly move over the Yucatan Peninsula then over the southeast Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow morning. Radar images show isolated showers in and around the Cayman area moving towards the northwest.
The NHC said it expected further development from the weather disturbance in the coming days, and advised affected areas to monitor local weather advisories for more details.
“Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico,” it said.
Forecasters have given the system a 60% chance of formation through the next five days.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gamma is moving over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula about 35 miles north-northwest of Tulum, Mexico. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
The government of Mexico has changed its hurricane warning to a tropical storm warning north of Punta Allen to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel, and discontinued all watches and warnings from Punta Allen southward.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for north and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam, Mexico, including Cozumel, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for west of Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico.
Tropical storm Gamma became the 24th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season overnight.
It is one of four weather systems currently engaging the attention of weather forecasters.
Gamma, which is located 308 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman, has strengthened and was approaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The Cayman Islands National Weather Service, in its overnight bulletin, said cloudy, rainy conditions along with intermittent thunderstorms are expected to continue across the Cayman Islands through Saturday night.
“Showers may become heavy at times, leading to low visibility and possible flooding in low lying areas. Gusty winds with rough seas are also expected in and around heavy showers associated with Tropical Storm Gamma,” it said.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said it expects the storm to produce rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches in Cayman and the Bay Islands of Honduras.
Gamma is located about 40 miles south-southeast of Tulum, Mexico and has registered maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour moving northwest at 9 mph.
“A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later [Saturday], and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday,” the NHC said in its latest advisory Saturday morning.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday and after landfall, some weakening is expected.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico.
Three weather systems under watch
The NHC is also monitoring three other weather systems in the Atlantic basin.
The first is a tropical wave producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
“Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said.
The second tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms, it said.
This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds.
The chance of formation through the next five days is low, at 20%.
The third area of activity under watch is disorganised showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic, more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, is associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. However, formation chance through five days remains at 10%.