Almost-complete census indicates population is below COVID estimate

Preliminary data from the almost-complete census indicates that Cayman’s total population is several thousand people smaller than the estimate used to calculate the local vaccination rate.

Finance Minister Chris Saunders reported in Parliament on Thursday that the 451 census enumerators have visited 95.3% of the estimated number of households since the population count began in October.

“After eight weeks of enumeration and despite the numerous challenges, including the community spread of COVID-19, we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Saunders said.

After completing 38,266 of an estimated 40,173 households, census workers have counted a non-institutional population of 63,187, he said.

The so-called institutional population includes several hundred residents who are living in institutions, such as prisons, dorms or retirement homes, rather than households.

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These preliminary figures suggest that Cayman’s total population is close to 67,000 and significantly below the conservatively adjusted 71,106 estimate used by government to calculate Cayman’s COVID-19 vaccination rate.

As of Wednesday, using the estimated population figure of 71,106, 82% of residents of Cayman had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

The last census took place in 2010. Since then, the Economics and Statistics Office used estimates to determine Cayman’s population size. In 2019, Cayman’s official estimated population was 69,914, before dropping to 65,786 in the wake of the pandemic in 2020.

At the request of the government, the ESO in April 2021 updated that figure and applied the upper end of the estimate’s 5% error margin to determine the population size of more than 71,100 that forms the basis of Cayman’s vaccination rate.

This could mean that Cayman’s actual vaccination rate may be even higher. However, the census data does not include certain categories, who may be part of the vaccination programme, such as visitors to the islands who stay fewer than six months, even if they have property locally, or workers waiting for their work permits.

In East End, the count is at 97% of households, Bodden Town is at 96.3%, West Bay at 96.4%, North Side at 94.9%, and George Town, the largest district, is 93.8% complete.

In the Sister Islands, the census has been completed.

Saunders appealed to all residents to participate in the census exercise, which also includes questions on quality of life.   

“This is an excellent opportunity for us to collect this data and implement policies and programmes geared to enhance the lives of Caymanians and residents of these islands,” he said.

2 COMMENTS

  1. So now that we know that probably 90% are vaccinated it time for the government to be more realistic about opening the island. Getting tested 2 days after landing when you we just tested a couple of days before is a waste of time and money

  2. It does seem a waste, as Bruce L stated, to keep testing every few days. Though, of all them, the 2nd day test is probably the most effective one and the most sensible to keep. If it takes up to 3 days for the virus to show itself, and a person catches it just before traveling or in transit, the Day 2 test will catch it and largely prevent it from spreading, vaccinated population or no.

    It’s crazy how many people crowd poorly ventilated airport restaurants in the US given the pandemic is still on – those places are probably a significant source of spread. Keep the Day 2 test and scrap the rest!