Forecasters call for below-average hurricane season

For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit Storm Centre.

Initial predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season suggest the region will experience below-average storm activity.

In its first pre-season forecast, released Thursday, 13 April, the Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project called for 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which are likely to be major storms at Category 3 or higher.

According to the 30-year climatological mean, which runs from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The annual Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 Nov.

Each year, prior to releasing its own forecast, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service reviews the predictions issued by CSU and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center. NOAA is expected to release its forecast next month.

CSU’s forecast is largely in line with most other predictions issued so far. However, they have cautioned there is a great deal of uncertainty with their forecasts due to a general warming of sea-surface temperatures across parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

“Larger-than-normal uncertainty exists with this outlook,” CSU’s forecast stated. “We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

A driving force behind the uncertainty is a developing El Niño phenomenon, which refers to the warming of the sea surface along the equatorial belt.

Earlier today, NOAA issued an El Niño watch, stating that “…neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023”.

Although forecasters only expect 13 named storms, this year’s hurricane season will see four new names added to the storm list.

Six lists of 21 names are in rotation, with the 2023 list mostly a repeat of the names used in 2017. However, names of storms that have caused major damage or loss of life are retired, so Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate, which wreaked havoc in the US, Central America or the Caribbean in 2017, are not on this year’s list.

Those names are being replaced by Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel.

2023 Atlantic storm names