Forecasters warn of 7 major hurricanes this season

Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are warning of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 13 hurricanes, seven of which they say could become major storms.

The predictions, which have been issued with 85% certainty, call for between 17 and 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are likely to develop into hurricanes with winds of at least 75 miles per hour.

Of those hurricanes, four to seven are anticipated to become at least Category 3 storms, with winds of at least 120mph.

In their 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, published on 23 May, experts at NOAA warned than warmer-than-average ocean temperatures coupled with a La Niña effect, were major factors behind their forecast.

The annual Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June through 30 Nov., is calculated on a 30-year average. The current average runs from 1991 to 2020 and indicates that a typical season has 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said in a statement posted to its website.

According to NOAA, the 2024 hurricane season will also feature the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which they say can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

NOAA’s forecast largely falls in line with that of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, which in April warned of as many as 23 named storms, of which they said 11 could become hurricanes – five of which could become Category 3 or higher.

When issuing its annual forecast, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service takes into consideration the forecasts of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University.

2024 storm names