International forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be extremely active with nearly 75% more storms in all categories, most of which are expected to make landfall within the Caribbean and mainland US.
In their annual pre-season predictions, issued on Thursday, 4 April, forecasters at Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project say as many as 23 named storms, with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher, will develop.
Of those named storms, 11 are expected to become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph; five of those hurricanes are expected to strengthen to Category 3 or higher, becoming major storms with winds of at least 111 mph.
According to CSU forecasters, the primary factors driving their predictions are warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures.
“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season,” states the CSU forecast, which has been issued with 60% degree of certainty.
The annual Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June through 30 Nov. is calculated on a 30-year average. The current average runs from 1991 to 2020 and indicates that a typical season has 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
When issuing their annual forecast, the Cayman Islands National Weather Services takes into consideration the forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center and CSU – both based in the US.
NOAA’s forecast is slated to be released next month.
2024 storm names
- Alberto Beryl
- Chris Debby
- Ernesto Francine
- Gordon Helene
- Isaac Joyce
- Kirk Leslie
- Milton Nadine
- Oscar Patty
- Rafael Sara
- Tony Valerie
- William
Related Videos
