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Summer spend

29 June 2026

Robert R. Pires,
CFA, MBA
Chief Investment Officer

Despite positive tailwinds of falling gasoline prices and bond yields, two of the three major US equity indices declined last week.

For the week, the S&P 500 Index was -1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrials +0.6%, and the NASDAQ -4.2%.

The healthcare, real estate, and utility sectors led the S&P 500 Index for the week, while the communication services, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors lagged.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield was 4.370% at Friday’s close versus 4.455% the previous week.

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The May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index was +0.4% month-over-month and +4.1% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy prices, core PCE was +0.3% month-over-month, and +3.4% year-over-year.

Part of the headline increase was due to higher energy prices. This should start to reverse itself in June, as national average gasoline prices have declined 12.6% over the past month.

The third estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed economic growth at 2.1% versus the second estimate at 1.6% and the advance estimate at 2%. Strong domestic investment underpinned economic growth during the quarter. The Federal Reserve is forecasting 2.2% GDP growth for the full year.

There are four companies in the S&P 500 Index scheduled to report earnings this week. Second-quarter earnings are expected to grow by 23.1%, and quarterly revenue growth is expected at 12.3%. Full-year 2026 earnings are expected to grow by 24% with revenue growth of 11.2%.

In our ‘Dissecting headlines’ section, we look at cookout costs and travel forecasts for the Independence Day holiday.

Dissecting headlines: Grilling and driving

Based on data from the Fam Bureau, the cost of a 4 July Cookout for 10 people should cost $73.82, 4.1% higher year-over-year.

For the traditional hamburger, ground beef is 5.5% higher year-over-year, buns are 7.7% higher, and cheese is 1.7% higher. Chicken breasts are 3.5% higher year-over-year and pork chops are 4.7% higher.

Ingredients for lemonade are 3.9% higher, strawberries are 12.4% higher due to a spring freeze in Florida, chocolate chip cookies are 6.3% higher, and ice cream is 5.3% higher.

The single highest increase in the basket comparison is pork and beans, which are 13.8% higher due mainly to higher aluminium costs raising the can price.

Two basket items have declined year-over-year as lower potato prices lowered the cost of potato chips by 0.8%, and potato salad by 17.8%. Lower egg prices also contributed to the lower potato salad prices.

The American Automobile Association’s (AAA) Independence Day travel forecast projects a new record with 72.2 million people planning to travel more than 50 miles from home. This is 0.6% higher than last year.

The main mode of transportation is expected to be by automobile with 61.4 million travellers. This is marginally higher than 2025’s 61.3 million auto travellers.

Current gasoline prices are averaging $3.867 per gallon, 21.1% higher year-over-year. There may be some lower sticker shock at the pump since gasoline prices peaked in May and have fallen 12.6% over the past month. Air travel is expected to see 5.85 million travellers, a 0.2% increase from 2025. Domestic airfare is averaging $830 per ticket due to higher jet fuel prices. Bus, train, and cruise travel is expected at 4.93 million passengers, an increase of 5.3% from last year.