After a near month-long lull in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic hurricane basin, forecasters say a string of tropical waves extending off the western coast of Africa to the central Atlantic Ocean has varying chances of intensifying within the next five days.
None of these systems poses any immediate threat to the Cayman Islands.
As of 8am Monday, 8 Aug., four separate tropical waves were detected by satellite imagery which collectively make up a string of “disorganized showers”, said forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
The first wave, which extends from the western coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic, is currently the slowest-moving of the systems, at speeds of 5 to 10 knots per hour. This system has the strongest chance of development, NHC forecasters say.
“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic,” reads an NHC weather bulletin. “The current outlook states that tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance within 5 days.”
The remaining three systems all straddle the equator a couple of hundred miles apart from each other and are moving in a westward direction at between 15 to 20 knots per hour.
In its weather bulletin, the NHC said each of these systems is displaying similar “scattered moderate convection”. The NHC said has not given any indication of any potential further development of these systems.
The new systems end a relative stretch of inactivity within the Caribbean basin and come on the heels of revised forecasts which continue to call for an above-average hurricane season.
On Thursday, 4 August, the NHC issued its mid-season forecasts which confirmed earlier predictions of between 14 and 20 named storms, of which six to 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, the NHC believes from three to five could develop into major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher.
The revised forecasts come despite a slow start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season which runs from 1 June to 30 Nov. each year.
On 5 June, Tropical Storm Alex became the first named system of the season, breaking seven consecutive years of storm formation outside the official start.
Since then, Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin formed on 1 July and 2 July, respectively. None of the systems posed any threats to the Cayman Islands. No hurricanes have formed as of yet.
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