Thousands more students pack into Cayman school system

By Patrick Brendel, Cayman Current

It’s common knowledge that Cayman Islands schools are already crowded. Available space in government schools is a constant concern, and lengthy waitlists for admission to private schools are, at this point, a given.

With the potential for Grand Cayman to add more than 2,000 students over the next 10 years, and, in the absence of government plans to significantly expand government school capacity, the big question is: Where are we going to put all the kids?

Overall increase in students

From 2010 to 2021, the number of Cayman students in primary and secondary schools grew by 23%, standing at more than 8,800, according to 2021 Census of Population and Housing Report.

If you apply that annualised growth rate going forward, then Cayman is on track to have more than 11,000 students by the year 2032. That’s an additional 2,200 students.

The student growth rate from 1999 to 2010 was even higher, at 27% over the 11-year period.

As with all projections, there is room for estimates and interpretation. Depending on if we apply growth rates by decade or by year, and if we factor in the higher growth rate from 1999 to 2010, our projected Cayman student population in 2032 ranges from 10,800 to 11,600 students.

And here’s a caveat: The 2021 Census does include ‘full-time’, ‘part-time’ and ‘home-schooled’ students, but does not distinguish between students who attend schools locally, and those who attend schools overseas.

For example, in the segment we are examining, primary and secondary school students, those numbers also would include students away at boarding school. Historically, that group is quite small; i.e., according to the 2010 Census, only 2% of Cayman’s primary and secondary students attended school overseas.

Government vs. private schools

Because of the way the 2021 Census presents its information, it is more useful to use the government’s annual Education Data Reports to make comparisons between local government school and private school enrolment.

The key takeaway here is that from 2010 to 2021, amid a significant increase in the overall student population, there was actually a slight decrease in government school enrolment.

Put another way, private schools absorbed all of the net growth in Cayman students over the past decade.

The 2021 Education Data Report identifies total government and private school enrolment at about 8,550 students, with 4,800 in government schools (56%) and 3,750 in private schools (44%).

In 2010, government schools had 63% of total enrolment, compared to 37% for private schools.

Using the statistics in the data reports to project future growth, by 2032 Cayman’s private schools will enroll more than half of all students, becoming the dominant provider of education in the country.

District growth

Of course, the above forward-looking statement depends on the available capacity in individual schools, potential construction of new schools, and/or possible expansions to existing schools.

There’s also variation among individual districts. The district with the highest proportional rate of student growth from 2010 to 2021 (according to the 2021 Census), was Bodden Town, which added nearly 500 students over that 11-year ‘decade’.

George Town also had higher-than-average student growth, and with its larger base population, added nearly 800 students in that time. By comparison, West Bay added about 300 primary and secondary students.

Government school capacity

Cayman Current keeps track of public school enrolment and capacity. The latest figures we have are for the beginning of the last school year, in September 2021.

Generally speaking, government schools in the smallest districts (North Side, East End and the Sister Islands) are well below their maximum capacities.

The situation varies at the larger primary schools; for example, John A. Cumber Primary School in West Bay was at 67% capacity, with room for 247 more students, while Prospect Primary School was at 90% capacity with room for only 37 more students.

However, it’s a different story at the secondary school level. Clifton Hunter High School was at 92% capacity, with room for 75 more students, while John Gray High School was at 94% capacity, with room for 72 additional students.

The John Gray numbers do not include additional space at the partially opened new campus. That being said, when complete, the new John Gray campus will have the same capacity – 1,100 students – as the existing John Gray.

In other words, the new John Gray (with an estimated construction cost of $170 million and counting) will not add capacity to the crowded public secondary school system.

Although, it should be noted that the new John Gray project involves converting the current John Gray campus into use by entities including CIFEC, whose existing facilities (also a former John Gray site) are at 95% capacity and, according to school inspectors, in need of “significant ongoing maintenance”.

Overall, Cayman government schools had room for nearly 1,500 more students. But only 1,140 of those seats were available in Grand Cayman – with 912 in primary and 147 in secondary.

Government school expansion?

With Juliana O’Connor-Connolly returning to helm at the Ministry of Education for the PACT government, the same position she held in the prior Progressives-led administration, there is a lot of overlap between the education agendas of the PACT and the Progressives.

However, while the Progressives’ manifesto did include planning for new space in primary schools, as it becomes necessary, the PACT Strategic Policy Statement only contains plans for building nursery facilities at public primary schools. That’s an expansion to the remit of the public school system, adding an age group that is one year younger than Reception, when public schools currently begin.

As of June, O’Connor-Connolly emphasised that the government still intends to establish public nursery classes in all public schools, beginning with a new classroom block at Red Bay Primary School.

The plans for Grand Cayman follow the 2019 creation of a Nursery class at Creek and Spot Bay Primary School in Cayman Brac.

What about the private sector?

In recent years, much of the influx in new private school students has been accommodated by Cayman International School, which opened an early years facility, and, in January 2021, a new high school building.

The available capacity at the high school was almost immediately taken up, and, as of September 2021, the school’s enrolment stood at about 950 of an estimated maximum of 1,080 students. At that time, the constraints were with the number of available faculty, rather than building size, CIS Principal Jim Urquhart said.

Separately, another private school intends to build a new primary school facility in the Buttonwood Park development off Linford Pierson Highway (according to the development’s website, there will be another school there as well).

Perhaps further on the horizon, the UK’s Stowe Group is exploring interest in building a new school in Grand Cayman, with a proposed capacity of 600-800 students.

Anthony Wallersteiner, headmaster of Stowe School, visited Cayman in July to give a presentation and meet with potential stakeholders.

Homeschooling?

While the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns placed a brighter spotlight on homeschooling and/or virtual learning, the number of Cayman students partaking in homeschool is still relatively low, though it’s growing.

According to the 2021 Census, about 1.5% of Cayman’s full-time students between the ages of 5-19 were homeschooled. By comparison, in 2010 homeschoolers accounted for less than 1% of the student population.

Current Education Connection:

The Cayman Compass is partnering with the Cayman Current, a non-profit media organisation that covers education on the islands, for a monthly feature looking at what is happening in the islands’ schools and beyond.

More from the Cayman Current at www.caymancurrent.org.