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Although the National Hurricane Center has given a broad area of low pressure south of Cayman a low probability of development, it is still likely to increase the chances of showers and thunder locally later this week.
National Weather Service meteorologist Shamal Clarke, responding to Cayman Compass queries about the system Tuesday morning, said the area of interest over the southwest Caribbean still has a low probability of development.
“It is forecast to slowly drift northwest and based on the latest information has only a 20% chance of developing. Regardless of development, on its projection, we will likely see an increase in cloudiness and chance of showers for Friday with conditions expected to begin improving by Saturday afternoon,” Clarke said.
He added that a tropical wave over the central Caribbean is also expected to move over the western Caribbean around the same time which will contribute to some increased shower activity as well.
NWS chief meteorologist Kerry Powery Linwood added the low potential for development is due to the possible interaction with the coast of Nicaragua.
“While this might not develop into any “storm” it will likely interact with an approaching tropical wave. Even in this scenario, over the last few days, the models have decreased its likely impacts over the North West Caribbean,” Powery Linwood said via email.
According to a model run on Monday the interaction with the system near Panama and the tropical wave is expected to increase the chances of showers and thunder across the Cayman area, he said.
The NHC, in its Tuesday morning advisory, said the broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
“Some slow development of this system is possible by the end of the week, if the system remains over water. This system is expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America,” it said.
The NHC maintained that the system has a 20% chance of formation through the next five days and a zero percent chance of formation through the next 48 hours.
Tropical depression likely over next 48 hours
Meanwhile a second system off the coast of Africa has a high chance of developing over the next five days and Clarke said the five-day forecast places it in the Atlantic if that happens.
“Forecast projections are too early to say definitively but the latest model information does not project the system into the Caribbean,” he added.
The NHC said the well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of the coast of Guinea.
“Associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low [pressure system] moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” it said.
The system has a 90% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. It also has the same percentage chance of formation through the next five days.
Other systems in the Atlantic region being monitored are tropical depression Ida, which is continuing to weaken over the US, and tropical depression Kate, downgraded from a tropical storm Tuesday, which is moving slowly over the central Atlantic.
Kate does not a threat to any land mass and has become poorly organised as of Tuesday morning.