The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season marked its halfway point with its slowest start in 30 years, but predictions for above-average storm activity are still forecast.
Since the season began on 1 June, there have been just three named storms and one hurricane.
The unusual lull in storm activity resulted in no named storms developing during August, only the fifth time this has happened since 1950, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
For only the 5th time since 1950 (1962, 1967, 1977, 1982, 2022), the Atlantic has had no named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) activity from 7/3-8/26. However, indications are that the Atlantic will be getting busier (and potentially a lot busier) in the next few days. pic.twitter.com/MJ0XTXhvuY
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 26, 2022
Initial forecasts, issued on 24 May by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, called for between 14 and 20 named storms, of which six to 10 were expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those storms, forecasters say three to five could develop into major hurricanes – at Category 3 or higher.
With three months to go, it is not clear whether the season will live up to predictions. A sluggish start to the season does not necessarily mean the rest of the season will follow suit.
Throughout August, there were several tropical waves which developed off the western coast of Africa and made their way across the Atlantic Ocean, with some entering the Caribbean. However, none of those strengthened into tropical storms, which are marked by sustained winds of between 39 miles per hour and 63 mph.
Cayman Islands National Weather Service forecaster Gilbert Miller told the Cayman Compass a central high-pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean has been responsible for curtailing storm development.
“It’s called the Bermuda-Azores High, and it doesn’t typically extend this far south,” said Miller. “However, it has developed fairly strong this year and has been preventing cyclogenesis, and has not been allowing storms to strengthen or develop.”
Forecasters expect above-average season
Despite the lack of storm activity to date, forecasters have maintained their calls for an above-average hurricane season.
In its revised mid-season forecast issued on 4 Aug., the NHC said, “atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season”.
With 90 days to go before the official 30 Nov. end of the 2022 season, it is possible that the remaining predicted named storms could develop – potentially up to 17.
According to the NHC, September marks not only the halfway point, but 10 Sept. is regarded as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, per their climatological mean, which runs from 1991 to 2020.
That last year marked the most active Atlantic Hurricane season on record.
‘One storm makes an active season’
“The high-pressure system has begun to ease up, and as the [NHC] has predicted, storm development and intensification is very likely in the next five days,” said Miller speaking earlier this week.
He added, “The season might have gotten off to a slow start, but it only takes one storm for it to be an active season for us.”
As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its second half, data suggests that storm development often shifts from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern and central Caribbean Sea – which means less warning time for residents in Cayman and neighbouring countries.
“Now is not the time to let your guard down,” said Miller. “We need to keep an eye on the horizon because you never know when a storm will come our way.”
Radar offline
Meanwhile, Cayman’s radar remains offline, as repairs on damage caused by last year’s Tropical Storm Grace continue.
According to a press release issued on Friday, an assessment of the Kearney Gomez Doppler Radar dome is being carried out to determine when repairs will be completed.
The weather radar went offline last year due to a combination of issues related to the backup generator, the damaged dome, and a failed radar part. Backup generator service was restored in June 2022 and the radar was repaired in July 2022, though work on the radar dome continued.
For the latest information on storm activity in the Cayman Islands, as well as information on how to prepare for hurricane season, visit the ALT Storm Centre.
Related Videos
It’s a bit like the Radar Dome.