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The Atlantic basin remains quiet, but forecasters say environmental conditions should become more conducive to storm formation towards the end of the month and into early September.
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, in its latest two-week forecast released Tuesday afternoon, called for “near-normal activity” from 20 Aug.-2 Sept.
Phil Klotzbach, CSU senior research scientist, told the Cayman Compass in an emailed comment on Thursday that the CSU forecast was based off of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – an integrated metric accounting for storm frequency, wind speeds and duration.
CSU is forecasting a 55% probability that the ACE value remains in the “normal” range for now.
“However, the model guidance has backed off on any potential tropical cyclone development in the shorter-term, so I would say that the odds of below-normal have increased through early September,” he explained.
The forecasters are still maintaining their seasonal forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be an extremely active one, despite the short-term forecast.
Klotzbach said the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center is also showing no activity during the next seven days in their outlook.
“There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center currently is not monitoring any areas for tropical cyclone development in the next seven days. However, large-scale environmental conditions look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the end of August,” the CSU forecast stated.
Hurricane activity to pick up
Klotzbach added there are signs that hurricane activity may pick up in early September.
“It’s too early to pinpoint any particular areas that may develop at this point, so I’d say just to follow the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates,” he said.
The CSU forecast said the global model ensembles highlight several potential areas for tropical cyclone formation during the second week of the two-week forecast period.
“The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to persist over the Indian Ocean and then potentially move towards the Maritime Continent, providing large-scale conditions that favor Atlantic hurricane activity,” it added.
CSU has estimated 23 named storms this season, down from the 25 storms it projected in July in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.
This means it is projecting at least 18 more named storms, or storms that reach at least tropical storm wind speeds of 39mph or more, for the remainder of the season.
To date, five named storms have formed in the Atlantic – Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby and Ernesto.
All of these storms are included in the forecast storm statistics.
The 20 Aug.–2 Sept. forecast period, with respect to climatology, typically marks the ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The primary area at risk for major hurricanes in late August is in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
CSU, Klotzbach said, will be releasing another two-week forecast on 3 Sept.
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