Update 12:30pm: Weather forecasters are now predicting the non-tropical low pressure system flagged earlier today will become a short-lived subtropical cyclone by weekend.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, in its afternoon update Wednesday, has upgraded its projection on the system – now called disturbance 1 – from a 30% chance of formation in five days to 40% and added a 10% chance in 48 hours.
The NHC said the non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by Thursday afternoon and produce gale-force winds.
If the system develops into a sub-tropical storm it will be called Ana, the first on the official list of storm names for 2021. It is the first area of interest for forecasters in the Atlantic basin as the region prepares for the official start of hurricane season on 1 June.
“The low is then forecast to move west-southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by Monday,” the NHC said.
Forecasters are expecting an above-average hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 Nov.
April pre-season predictions have projected 17 named storms, including eight hurricanes, this year.
Last year the Atlantic basin recorded 28 named storms, 12 of which developed into hurricanes.
Original story: Weather forecasters are today keeping a close watch on a non-tropical low pressure system forecast to develop a few miles northeast of Bermuda by late Thursday or early Friday.
The system, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, has a low chance of development at this stage and has been pegged at a 30% likelihood of formation through the next five days.
“The low [pressure system] is then expected to move southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and possibly acquire subtropical characteristics before the system lifts out toward the north and northeast on Saturday and Sunday,” the NHC said in its weather advisory Wednesday morning.
This is the first area of interest for forecasters in the Atlantic basin as the region prepares for the official start of hurricane season on 1 June.
Forecasters suggest that the low pressure system will interact with a cold front in the coming days which could push it further out to sea where it will remain.