Tropical depression likely to form

Monday, 31 Aug. forecast from US National Hurricane Center

Sunday afternoon, 30 Aug. update

A tropical wave moving towards the western Caribbean has been upgraded to having a high chance of formation over the next two to five days by the US-based National Hurricane Center.

Residents of the Cayman Islands should monitor the system, according to Hazard Management Cayman Islands, which also Tweeted the tropical wave has become better organised and a tropical depression is now likely to form. The hurricane centre encouraged residents of Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan to also follow the system.

Rain showers and thunderstorm activity associated with the wave are showing signs of organisation and environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for development, forecasters advised.

As of Sunday afternoon, the NHC had placed the system at a 70% chance of formation over 48 hours and at an 80% chance over five days.

Sunday midday, 30 Aug. update

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is showing signs of formation, the US National Hurricane Center reported Sunday.

A broad, low-pressure system has formed in association with the wave and the center now places it at a 60% chance of tropical formation over the next five days.

Residents of Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan have been advised to monitor the progress of the wave. Forecasters anticipate a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days, as the system moves west at 15 mph towards the western Caribbean and Central America.

Friday afternoon, 28 Aug. update

A tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands was upgraded to a medium probability of cyclonic formation by the US National Hurricane Center in its Friday afternoon update.

The centre’s 2pm forecast places the wave, currently located over the eastern Atlantic, at a 40% chance of formation over the coming five days.

While the northern part of the wave is not forecast to develop, the southern part could develop as it moves west.

“The southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the forecast said.

Another tropical wave, about 850 mils east of the Windward Islands, remains at a 30% chance of formation over five days.

Gradual development of this system is possible as it moves west. The system is moving west towards the eastern Caribbean at about 15 mph.

Friday morning, 28 Aug. update

A tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands could gradually develop over coming days.

The system remained at a low chance of development, 30%, over the next five days, according to the US National Hurricane Center’s Friday morning forecast.

The system is moving westward at 15 miles per hour towards the eastern Caribbean.

Another tropical wave located west of the Cabo Verde Islands also demonstrated a low chance of development, 30%, over the next five days.

“The northern part of this [second] wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions,” the NHC forecast read Friday morning.

“However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.”

Thursday, 27 Aug. update

Forecasters are keeping a close watch on two tropical waves that have emerged in the Atlantic basin.

While both conditions have a low chance of formation, 20% and 30%, respectively, they are projected to produce showery activity in the coming days.

The first wave, which is westward-moving, is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands and continues to produce disorganised shower activity, the National Hurricane Center said in its 1pm report.

“Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central and then western tropical Atlantic,” it said.

The formation chance through 48 hours remains low at near zero percent, while formation chance through the next five days stands at 20%.

The second tropical wave, which emerged over the central tropical Atlantic, showed an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.

Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, the NHC said.

Forecasters give this tropical wave a 10% chance of formation through 48 hours, and a 30% chance through the next five days.

Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to weaken further later on Thursday. – Photo: National Hurricane Center

Meanwhile Laura, which was a Category 4 hurricane at its strongest, has left a trail of destruction in its wake as it moves through the southern US.

The centre of now Tropical Storm Laura, the NHC said, was located inland over northern Louisiana and was moving toward the north near 15 mph.

This motion is forecast to continue through Thursday afternoon.

“A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected [Thursday night] and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas [Thursday], the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday,” the NHC said.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph with higher gusts.

Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression Thursday evening or overnight.

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